A new independent poll found a plurality of voters don’t support any of the top four Republican, Democratic and independent candidates for Tennessee governor when forced to choose — despite 72% of respondents identifying as Republican or independent.
Among 635 likely voters contacted this month, 30% said they support “someone else”
over either the Republican or Democratic candidates or the two leading independents in the race.Of the named candidates, Republican gubernatorial nominee U.S. Sen Marsha Blackburn came out on top, earning 25% total support. Just behind her was independent David Hatley, who garnered 21%. Then came Democrat Jerri Green with 19% support, followed by independent Lauren Pinkston.
When respondents had a choice to remain undecided,
Blackburn took an 12% lead over Green with 44% support, while Green earned 32%, and Hatley came in at 12%. The remaining 12% were largely undecided, while 1% said they’d support Pinkston.
In that scenario, Blackburn boasted 74% support among Republicans, while Green commanded 88% support among Democrats. Independents broke for Green at 43%, with 20% of independents supporting Hatley and 16% supporting Blackburn.
Polling and research firm Spry Strategies surveyed 635 likely Tennessee voters between Oct. 10 and 16 via a text-to-web survey. The poll’s margin of error is +/- 3.89 percentage points.
No gubernatorial campaign has reported expenditures with Spry Strategies this election cycle. The firm's clients include Tennessee House Speaker Cameron Sexton, the Tennessee House and Senate Republican caucuses and U.S. Rep. Tim Burchett.
While Tennessee has in recent election cycles skewed strongly Republican, and the poll is engineered to reflect the voter base, respondents seemed skewed somewhat to the right: About 53% of respondents identified as Republicans and 19% identified as independents, while 23% identified as Democrats. Nearly 57% of respondents lived in rural or small towns, and 83% of respondents identified as moderate to very conservative.
Blackburn struggles to coalesce support among Republicans
Blackburn has a plurality of support among her own party but is not the first pick of a majority of Republicans. When forced to choose, about 38% of Republican respondents said they support Blackburn, while 26% said they support “someone else,” 24% went for Hatley, and 8% support Pinkston.
Green’s support is much stronger among Democrats. When forced to choose, 56% said they support her, 17% support Hatley, and 14% support “someone else.” More Democrats said they’d support Blackburn (12.4%) than Republicans said they’d vote for Green.
While “someone else” holds the highest support among independents when voters are required to choose, Green has the lead among named candidates, with 21% support, followed by Blackburn at 20% and Hatley at 19%.
Green, Hatley win favorability among independents
Overall, 48% said they had a “favorable opinion” of Marsha Blackburn, while 37% said they thought favorably of Green, but nearly 39% of voters had no opinion or had never heard of her. On the independents, 27% thought favorably of Hatley, and fewer than 10% thought favorably of Pinkston.
Independents, who will play a key role in the election, were more likely to support Green than Blackburn: 75% of voters had an unfavorable opinion of Blackburn, while 20% of independents had an unfavorable view of Green.
Hatley was the favorite independent among independents polled, earning 34% favorability among independents, while 38% said they had no opinion or were unaware of him.
Polling showed Pinkston remains largely unknown even among independents, with 49% saying they’d never heard of her and another 32% who had no opinion.
Hagerty has higher approval as U.S. senator than Blackburn
Blackburn’s approval as a U.S. senator has dropped to 49%, trailing her counterpart U.S. Sen. Bill Hagerty, who is up for reelection this year. A total of 46% of respondents of all parties disapproved of Blackburn's job performance, and the rest had no opinion. Among independents, 71% disapproved of Blackburn’s work in the Senate.
U.S. Sen. Bill Hagerty fared better, with 52% of respondents saying they approved of the job he’s doing, 13% having no opinion and 35% disapproving.
Vivian Jones covers state government and politics for The Tennessean. Reach her at vjones@tennessean.com.
This article originally appeared on Nashville Tennessean: Plurality of voters want ‘someone else’ for Tennessee governor: poll
