There are two kinds of people who confidently predict what artificial intelligence will do to the economy: those who say AI will create an explosion of productivity and prosperity, and those who say it will eliminate millions of jobs.
Both sides have reasonable arguments. But when it comes to technology and its impact on society, history has shown that predicting the future is hard.
In 1943, IBM Chairman Thomas Watson supposedly believed there might be a world market for five computers. In 1998, economist Paul Krugman wrote that by around 2005 the economic impact of the internet might prove no greater than that of the fax machine. In 2007, Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer famously said there was “no chance” the iPhone would gain significant market share.
These were not dumb people. They were smart people trying to imagine a future that turned out to look very different from the present.
So instead of trying to predict exactly what AI will do, a better question is: What can Nashville do now to make sure we thrive under a range of possible outcomes?
Fortunately, our city is entering the AI era from a position of strength.
Our economy isn't built around one industry. Healthcare, manufacturing, tourism, music and entertainment, financial services, construction and technology sectors all have substantial footprints here.
But economic strength today doesn't guarantee economic strength tomorrow. AI is moving quickly enough that Nashville should be doing some very specific things now.
First, we need widespread, practical AI training.
Not everybody needs to become a machine-learning engineer. Most of us don't need to know how the engine works to drive the car.
But accountants should know how AI can help analyze financial information. Nurses and healthcare administrators should understand where it can save time. Marketers should learn how to use it for research and content. Construction companies should know how it can help with estimating and project management. Software developers should understand how it changes the way software gets built.
Our universities, community colleges, employers and nonprofits should create short, practical training programs targeted to specific professions.
Nashville should embrace AI for productivity
Second, Nashville businesses should focus on using AI to make workers more productive before using it simply to reduce headcount.
The first question shouldn't be, “How many people can we replace?”
It should be, “How can our people use this technology to do more?”
A customer-service employee with the right AI tools might resolve twice as many issues. A salesperson might spend less time entering information into a CRM and more time talking to customers. A small accounting firm might automate routine work while spending more time advising clients.
Those productivity gains can make Nashville companies more competitive without automatically turning AI adoption into a layoff strategy.
Third, we need to make sure small businesses aren't left behind.
Large companies will have AI committees, consultants, software budgets and strategic plans. The owner of a 12-person HVAC company probably won't.
Nashville's business organizations, technology companies and universities could create hands-on AI clinics where local businesses bring in real problems and learn how to solve them.
How do I automate scheduling?
Can AI help prepare estimates?
Can it reduce paperwork?
Can it improve customer follow-up?
Helping thousands of Nashville businesses become even 10% or 20% more productive could have an enormous economic impact.
Nashville can reinvent itself again
Fourth, we should prepare now for workers whose jobs are disrupted.
Some jobs probably will disappear. Others will change so dramatically that they may barely resemble what they are today.
History tells us that technological revolutions eventually create new types of work. Unfortunately, “eventually” isn't particularly comforting when your job disappeared last week. We need faster pathways for people to move from declining occupations into growing ones.
That means training tied directly to jobs that actually exist, closer partnerships between employers and educators and programs that can retrain someone in months rather than years.
Fifth, Nashville should encourage people to start companies built around AI.
Every technological shift creates winners that nobody sees coming.
Nashville already has deep expertise in healthcare, music, hospitality, logistics and other industries. Combining that domain knowledge with AI could create companies that couldn't have existed five years ago.
We shouldn't necessarily try to become Silicon Valley. We should try to become very good at building AI companies that solve problems Nashville already understands.
And finally, we need to keep investing in the things AI can't easily replicate.
Relationships. Judgment. Creativity. Trust. Leadership. Community.
Those have always mattered in business, but they may become even more valuable when machines can produce competent analysis, software and marketing copy in seconds.
Nashville has reinvented itself before. We went from being known primarily as a music town to becoming a major center for healthcare, tourism, technology, entrepreneurship and business.
The challenge now is to do it again — without losing the character that made people want to be here in the first place.
JJ Rosen is the founder of Atiba, a custom software development firm, and Nashville IT support company. Visit Atiba.com for more info.
This article originally appeared on Nashville Tennessean: Nashville should embrace AI for efficiency, not layoffs | Opinion
