Leaf-peeping season is almost here, and while fall brings some respite from the brutal temperatures of summer, there is both good and bad news for Tennessee.
The good news: Leaves across Tennessee are expected to begin changing color earlier than the historical average, according to ExploreFall, which tracks fall color forecasts and peak foliage timing across the United States.
The bad news: Fall color displays are expected to be less vibrant than usual, with overallcolor quality anticipated to be poor.
Here's what to know ahead of leaf-peeping season in Tennessee.
When is the first day of fall?
The fall equinox, which marks the official start of autumn in the Northern Hemisphere, will occur at 7:04 p.m. CT on Sept. 22, according to The Old Farmer's Almanac.
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What is the autumnal equinox?
The autumnal equinox is the astronomical event that signals the beginning of fall. It takes place in September in the Northern Hemisphere and in March in the Southern Hemisphere.
Tennessee fall weather predictions 2026
Tennessee, along with Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama, can expect a warm, dry fall in 2026.
According to The Old Farmer's Almanac's forecast, temperatures in September and October are expected to average about one degree below normal. Rainfall is also projected to be below average, with northern areas receiving roughly two inches less precipitation than usual and southern parts of the region seeing four inches less than normal.
During the fall months, Nashville typically sees cooler temperatures and steady rainfall.
Average temperatures drop from 73 degrees in September to 61 degrees in October and 50 degrees in November, while monthly rainfall remains fairly consistent, averaging 3.8 inches in September and about 3.9 inches in both October and November, according to local climatology data from the National Weather Service.
When will leaves begin to change color in Tennessee?
Nashville and surrounding Middle Tennessee areas will begin to see leaves change color from mid to late October. By Oct. 25, much of Middle Tennessee is expected to display moderate fall color.
By early November, high color is expected to spread across the region.
"The first true fall colors should begin to emerge around October 13, with peak color near November 11 and past-peak conditions beginning around November 17," wrote ExploreFall. "Nearby color timing is fairly uniform, so the local forecast should translate well across the area."
When will leaves reach peak color in Tennessee?
Peak color is expected across Middle Tennessee on Nov. 11, one day earlier than the average peak date of Nov. 12. According to ExploreFall, the earlier-than-normal forecast is mainly linked to warm spring temperatures.
Why Tennessee will see dull displays of fall colors
According to AccuWeather's fall foliage forecast, the Volunteer State is expected to see more muted autumn colors from September through November.
"Plenty of clouds and rain will keep the leaves green until leaf drop in the Southeast," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Paul Pastelok explained. "Lack of nights with a clear sky and cooler air will help foster the dull colors."
Diana Leyva covers trending news and service journalism for The Tennessean. Contact her at Dleyva@gannett.com.
This article originally appeared on Nashville Tennessean: When will Middle Tennessee leaves change color? Fall foliage could peak early
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