Former Ohio State University professor Don Leonard thought he could help Democrats by writing a book on what he called America’s living wage crisis. Then he decided he was too late.
Frustrated and angry, including with Democrats, the academic decided he would run for Congress as a Democrat. Leonard looked at a map for a central Ohio district where he believed a Democrat could compete and landed on Ohio’s 15th congressional district, currently represented by former coal lobbyist, Republican Rep. Mike Carey of Columbus.
Carey has held the seat since a 2021 special election and won it three times by 13 points or more, so political experts are still skeptical that a Democrat can win in the heavily gerrymandered district. It’s difficult to describe
the shape of Ohio’s 15th congressional district. The district lumps together parts of Columbus and its suburbs, including Dublin, Hilliard and Grove City, with rural counties like Fayette, and Miami.
At the end of September, Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved the congressional district’s rating from “safe Republican” to “likely Republican.” The party that controls the Whitehouse often loses ground in midterms and President Donald Trump’s popularity continues to plumet as voters’ frustrations mount about the cost of living and war with Iran.
Ohio’s 15th congressional district went to Trump over Kamala Harris by nine points in 2024. Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, said he would be surprised if Carey lost.
“Leonard needs a lot of things to go right to win,” Kondik told The Dispatch.
If Leonard wins, Kondik said it will mean the country’s experiencing a much larger blue wave than 2018, the last midterm under a Trump presidency. He said Leonard will need suburban voters who lean blue to come out in force to have any chance.
Leonard said he believes the seat is flippable because he said Trump and the Republican brand is in the toilet and Carey is beholden to Trump.
Carey has rarely broken with Trump. Carey includes a Truth Social post by Trump endorsing him prominently on his website.
Carey’s campaign did not respond to multiple requests for an interview about his race from The Dispatch.
Paul Beck, professor emeritus of political science at Ohio State University, said it’s been a strategy for Republican incumbents to simply not talk to reporters and hope voters will still vote their way without hearing from them.
The race has attracted enough attention that groups on the right are running attack ads on Leonard. Defending Main Street, a Republican super PAC, has spent about $320,000 on opposition ads against Leonard.
Some of these attack ads highlight that Grove City police arrested and briefly detained Leonard in March at a "No Kings" rally. Leonard has said he’s proud he exercised his free-speech rights and denounced the police for opting to enforce a noise ordinance during a political protest.
Carey has a sizeable fundraising advantage. Carey received $3.3 million in donations this election cycle, over half of which comes from PACs, according to the latest Federal Election Commission filing from the end of June. Meanwhile, Leonard has raised about $600,000, mostly from individual contributors, per the latest filing from the end of June.
National Democrat strategists are considering spending more money to help unseat Carey, according to a New York Times article from Oct. 6.
Complicating the race between Carey and Leonard is Libertarian candidate Brennan Barrington. There are also two write-in candidates.
Where do Carey and Leonard stand on the issues?
Leonard, who bought a house in the Hilltop right before the primary, secured the Democratic nomination in this race over establishment-backed Democrat Adam Miller, a former state representative. Leonard and his wife moved to central Ohio in 2016 to become OSU professors. He grew up in Alaska.
Leonard is part of a wave of more progressive candidates who challenged establishment Democrats in primaries this year.
“I’m a proud Democrat who’s angry and wants to have a family meeting with my fellow Democrats,” Leonard told The Dispatch.
Leonard has split with moderate Dems on some issues: Leonard wants to replace U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement and he's opposed what he calls genocide by Israel in Gaza. Leonard's wife is Jewish.
Leonard said Democratic policies for years have failed to stop an affordability crisis. His top four issues are all about affordability, specifically addressing the affordability of health care, childcare, homeownership and aging.
“I am running for Congress because we have got to take our government back from corporations and special interests who cater to the needs of the few rather than the rest of us,” Leonard told The Dispatch. “We have got to create an economy that works for the working families of Central Ohio. Folks are so tired of working two, three jobs and still not being able to make ends meet.”
Leonard said he supports creating a “Medicare for all who want it” public health care option and nationally adopting the New Mexico’s model of universal childcare. He joked that the last one is selfish for his wife and him since he has a 20-month-old daughter.
Carey, 55, lives in German Village with his wife and two young sons. Carey’s priorities in Congress according to his website, include tax relief, affordable housing, investing in American jobs, domestic energy independence and supporting working families. Carey is a member of the House Ways & Means Committee, the body’s chief tax-writing committee, where he has supported tax breaks to incentivize new housing. This includes some bipartisan bills.
Carey voted for Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” which slashed Medicaid, Medicare and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program. He has also voted to support tariffs pursued by Trump.
On immigration, both candidates say they support securing the southern border and enforcing immigration law. Leonard, though, says ICE agents have been converted from a civilian law enforcement agency into a paramilitary hit squad that violates immigrants’ rights and human decency. He said he supports replacing ICE. At least 28 people have died in ICE custody this year and ICE agents have fatally shot four people.
A majority of Americans disapprove of the Iran war, but Carey has praised Trump’s “decisive action” in Iran as necessary to stop Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Leonard says the U.S. needs to get out of the war.
Beck said Carey linking himself so closely to Trump could backfire.
“It’s really hard for Carey to avoid the cloak of Trump that’s going to be disadvantageous to candidates in 2026,” Beck said.
Government and politics reporter Jordan Laird can be reached at jlaird@dispatch.com. Follow her on X, Instagram and Bluesky at @LairdWrites.
This article originally appeared on The Columbus Dispatch: Could GOP troubles put Carey's seat in play? It'd take a giant blue wave
