LOS ANGELES – Elly De La Cruz is too good for the Cincinnati Reds. Too powerful, too savvy, too valuable, and ultimately too expensive for a team that runs its very profitable baseball business like this one does.
That’s true in the current economic climate that one year produced a $700 million Los Angeles Dodgers free-agent signing and the next a $765 million New York Mets free-agent signing.
Everybody already knows that.
But it’s also true in the dreamworld of MLB propaganda that suggests a salary cap in the sport will suddenly allow small-market teams a more equitable playing field in efforts to keep their homegrown star players long-term.
“First of all, there’s no evidence of that,” said Scott Boras, the sport’s most powerful agent and the one
who represents De La Cruz.
“We have cap systems that have been operating in the NFL, NBA and NHL,” Boras said before going on to list the various ills under those systems that have resulted in more tanking and less competitive balance in some cases than baseball, and no patently better salary distribution in most.
The obvious fact of a salary cap – aside from the fact that nobody who works for someone else would ever embrace one in their own lives – is that the primary objective and result of a payroll cap is labor-cost certainty that drives year-over-year profits and franchise values.
It’s not about competitive parity, per se. Any parity that is achieved is a result of the fuller revenue sharing the cap leagues have (and through schedule manipulation in the case of the NFL).
“In a cap system, there’s no competitive parity,” Boras said.
Elly De La Cruz: 'A gifted player'
In Cincinnati, that brings the conversation back to the franchise’s biggest star since Joey Votto − who may one day prove to be the biggest since Eric Davis before that or some of the Big Red Machine greats before that.
“This guy’s a phenomenal player,” Boras said. “This guy is a thinking player and a gifted player.”
That’s not just agent-speak. Those who have worked closest with De La Cruz in his career say the same thing. The eye test also says it, considering the evident competitiveness, the desire to play everyday to the point of pushing through injuries to stay on the field, and the growth in his game that includes the switch-hitter’s stunning turnaround this year from the right side.
And it’s all rolled into why the Reds have little-to-no chance under their current operating philosophy of retaining De La Cruz beyond his three – or perhaps two – years of remaining club control.
Under this system or any other.
“Remember that you fall into a rights structure (as a player) where you want to gain standing in that structure,” Boras said of the three-years-to-arbitration, six-to-free-agency system. “You first want to prove yourself; you want to show consistency, eliteness to do those things.”
With 17 games left in the season, De La Cruz ranked fourth in the majors in WAR (per fangraphs.com), second in the National League only to MVP-favorite Pete Crow-Armstrong of the Chicago Cubs.
“And he plays the premium position. He also has age (24) that no one else has,” Boras said. “So once you establish those parameters, you now say what? ‘Oh, excuse me, this isn’t about time when you’re the steak. We don’t care what dinner time is.’
“Because the fact is, when you’re the steak, you sit there and wait for what? You wait for what the market brings. And you listen.”
They listened when the Reds offered a franchise-record extension to De La Cruz before last season. And determined that the 10-plus-year deal fell far short of what the open market will bring.
And De La Cruz listened. Then improved his game again.
“We’ve been saying this every year. He just keeps getting better and better,” teammate Matt McLain said. “The sky’s the limit.”
Which is why some executives and agents predicted in the aftermath of Juan Soto’s $765 million free-agent deal during the 2024 MLB Winter Meetings that De La Cruz might one day be baseball’s first billion-dollar free agent.
It’s also why the Reds will have very hard decisions over the next year or two about whether to leverage the club control over their best player in trade talks as they measure their competitive odds and weigh the reward of a trade against the risk of losing him to free agency.
De La Cruz talent on display vs. Dodgers
In fact, Elly De La Cruz’s big performance this week against the ultra-rich World Series champs, against the backdrop of Dodger Stadium, only underscores the reality that’s about to bite the Reds hard by the time he’s eligible for free agency after the 2029 season − or a year earlier, depending on what changes might be coming after this round of collective bargaining.
He may be the most powerful player on the market by then.
“It’s no secret that he’s one of the best players in our game,” McLain said.
He’s already the most powerful force on a baseball field right now.
And that as much as anything was on display on the big stage, under the bright lights, of Dodger Stadium when De La Cruz hit first-pitch home runs in each of the first two games of that series – from each side of the plate. That included a monster, 444-foot shot to the top of the left-field bleachers off two-time Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal, a lefty, for the only two Reds runs in a 3-2 loss in the middle game of that series.
When De La Cruz crossed the plate after the tying shot off Skubal, he pointed at the seats behind home plate, at his brother, Pedro, who sat in the front row in the middle of a group that included Boras and a handful of Boras Corp. honchos.
Pedro’s not the latest member of the Boras payroll. “No, he’s just here with me,” Elly said.
Either way, the power of the scene, of the moment, of that game, of De La Cruz’s rising star shone like few moments in an already dynamic career.
Sheer power.
A half-inning later, the All-Star shortstop took a relay throw in the middle of the outfield, maybe 200 feet from home plate, and launched the hardest throw by an infielder in the 12-year Statcast Era to throw out Teoscar Hernandez by more than a step as Hernandez tried to stretch a triple into an inside-the-park home run.
It initially registered at 105.3 mph before the site took down that number. A day later, it was ruled to have been thrown merely 102 mph – the first triple-digit assist for the player who owns the top six spots on the Statcast assist-velocity list for infielders.
“That was one of the better throws you’ll ever see. I mean, ever,” manager Terry Francona said, comparing it to some of the legendary throws by Dave Parker and Roberto Clemente.
De La Cruz finishing strong
De La Cruz has flexed this year − and especially lately − like he hasn’t in his career since his spectacular six-week burst onto the big-league stage in 2023.
More than the season numbers that have a chance to make this an overall career year − his long homer off Skubal matched his franchise record of 25 homers for a switch-hitter − his last few weeks suggest a stronger, more durable, fresher De La Cruz than at any time earlier in his career.
He says he feels “the same” as any other year, but with 17 games left in the season he was on a nearly three-week tear that included going 30-for-66 (.455) with five homers, seven walks, a .507 on-base percentage and .788 slugging percentage (1.295 OPS).
In fact, that home run off Skubal − the longest at Dodger Stadium this year − marked a fourth consecutive game with a homer.
“What’s nice is last year at this time he was really struggling, and he looks really good right now,” Francona said. “He’s got good energy, doesn’t look like he’s dragging to me.”
In three previous Septembers, De La Cruz has never hit better than .235 and never hit more than three home runs (.217/.308/.373 slash line in those three previous September/October regular-season stretches).
Three weeks on the injured list for a hamstring issue in June might have contributed to the freshness right now. And even De La Cruz admits that occasional games as the DH in recent weeks have helped (albeit, he wants it to stop: “I’m not a DH,” he said).
“But I give Elly a ton of credit,” Francona said. “I think he’s doing a better job postgame on his recovery stuff with (the strength coach). That’s just maturing as a player, learning what you need to do.”
Said De La Cruz: “Every year we want to finish strong. I want to keep going.”
And then? The Reds will get their first taste of the big-ticket reality of their mega-value player.
De La Cruz about to get a big raise
De La Cruz is eligible for arbitration for the first time this winter, and his $800,000 salary is about to jump more than 10-fold.
The easy comp is Baltimore shortstop Gunnar Henderson, another Boras client, who got $8.5 million this year in his first season after arbitration eligibility.
But keep an eye on the $11.5 million record another Boras client, Cody Bellinger got as a first-time arbitration player ahead of the 2020 season − albeit after an MVP season.
Something in between?
Stay tuned.
Boras was asked about the impact of De La Cruz’s strong finish this year, not only in relation to arbitration but what it might say about his rising value moving forward.
“We’re not surprised,” he said, rattling off the MLB WAR rankings that include only Crow-Armstrong, Bobby Witt Jr. and Yordan Alvarez ahead of him − all players, who already signed long-term extensions with their teams as young players.
“This is the caliber of player he is,” Boras said. “What do Alvarez and PCA and Witt Jr. all have in common? Not one of them was a free agent when they were 27 years old.”
This article originally appeared on Cincinnati Enquirer: Why MLB’s salary cap plan won’t fix Reds' Elly De La Cruz problem
