Gas prices are surging in Cincinnati.
So how much higher could fuel prices climb?
Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said he wouldn't be surprised to see gas prices climb as high as $4.99
a gallon in Cincinnati for regular unleaded as soon as Sept. 17.
"I tend to believe we will have another increase coming anytime,'' De Haan said, noting the volatile situation in the Middle East, including the Iran-backed Houthis attack on Saudi Arabiaon Sept. 15, was the biggest factor pushing gas prices higher and could escalate overnight.
Meanwhile, the temporary shutdown Sept. 13 of the ExxonMobil Joliet Refinery just outside Chicago has exacerbated supply issues in the Midwest, including in Cincinnati, he said.
Prices jump 25 cents overnight
Some Cincinnati-area motorists were already shocked to see some stations charging $4.59 a gallon recently for regular unleaded as rising oil prices and global supply disruptions push fuel costs higher.
The average price of a gallon of regular unleaded gas in Cincinnati shot up 25 cents to $4.32 on Sept. 16 from $4.07 the previous day, according to AAA Fuel Prices. By comparison, the average price of a gallon of regular unleaded gas in Cincinnati on Sept. 16 last year was $3.12.
Nationwide, average gas prices hit $4.37 on Sept. 16, up from $4.33 the previous day and $3.19 a year ago, according to AAA.
For Cincinnati-area drivers, the question now isn't whether gasoline prices are going higher: It's how high they will go and how long they will stay there, according to Denton Cinquegrana, chief oil analyst for Dow Jones Energy.
Experts divided on whether gas tops $5
"Worst case scenario is prices (for regular unleaded) get back over $5 a gallon,'' Cinquegrana said.
Cinquegrana was referring to the $5.09 all-time high for a gallon of regular unleaded in Cincinnati set in June 2022. That would be $5.83 in today's dollars, based on Consumer Price Index inflation data.
But a number of mitigating factors will likely keep prices in check, he said.
Gas prices tend to wane in the fall
Entering the fall, gasoline demand − and prices − tend to decline as the heavy summer travel season comes to an end and driving habits shift back to standard school and work routines, according to Cinquegrana. In addition, cooler weather and shorter days reduces driving for recreation and outdoor activities.
However, oil is still above $100 a barrel, and the situation in the Middle East combined with refinery and other supply issues could push oil prices even higher. That would keep retail gas prices much higher than they were at this time last year before the conflict with Iran started in February.
Ohio's overall retail average hovered around $2.95 to $3.27 in September last year, while the Cincinnati area saw prices ranging from $2.94 to $3.10 per gallon during the month.
"I don't know if we're going to get back to those levels anytime soon,'' Cinquegrana said.
This article originally appeared on Cincinnati Enquirer: How high could gas prices go in Ohio? Here's what experts say
