The Cincinnati Reds are holding out hope for a longshot return next season of Hunter Greene despite the greater likelihood the All-Star will miss all of next season after his second career Tommy John surgery last week.
“If you’re on the short end of the timeline, maybe you get him back at the end of the season. Maybe you don’t,” team president Nick Krall said.
Until then, “We’re going to plan not to have him,” Krall said.
And that means that what you see might be what you get when it comes to next year’s rotation as the Reds face a labor-fraught offseason amid the continued revenue stress of ongoing broadcast-rights uncertainty.
Look for the Reds to extend veteran innings
eater Brady Singer a qualifying offer (around $23 million) to give them a chance to maintain at least the strength of the staff they have now as they try to retool for a chance to reach the playoffs next year – amid a free agent landscape expected to be truncated by a labor lockout by owners at the Dec. 1 expiration of the current collective bargaining agreement.
The headline performer when it comes that potential Reds rotation strength is the 2026 All-Star who throws nearly as hard as Greene, with a slider that’s better than his fastball, and who sits on the fringes of the National League Cy Young race with six weeks to play.
And Chase Burns, who ground through five innings against the Cardinals Wednesday, Aug. 19 in a no-decision, is where the answer to the Reds’ biggest question for next year starts as all organizational eyes turn toward trying to best assure a bounce-back 2027.
If Singer returns, and assuming Greene does not, do the Reds have enough starting pitching to compete at a high level next season without a significant free agent addition?
“You’re always looking to have more depth no matter who you are or where you are,” Krall said. “Coming into this year, we had eight starters. We thought we had good depth coming into spring training. And you just never know.
“We’ll have to get to the offseason and see how everything looks.”
If it looks like the Reds, and walks like the Reds, and talks like the Reds at that point, there won’t be any free agent signings of substance coming before the Dec. 1 lockout.
Which takes it right back to what you see and what you get.
And if that’s the case, Burns (14-2, 2.51 ERA) might be the biggest reason to think the Reds could be back among the teams vying for a ticket to October if he does anything close to what he’s done already this first full season in the majors.
He didn’t get the personal win in that 5-4 team win over the Cardinals, but by limiting the Cards to just two fourth-inning runs in his 103-pitch, five-inning start, he kept the Reds close enough for rookie Sal Stewart – the next biggest reason to think the Reds might have a chance to make noise next year – to put the Reds ahead with one swing in the sixth.
Specifically, Stewart’s 27th home run of the season – a rocket over the berm past the centerfield wall – added his 92nd, 93rd and 94th RBIs to his Rookie of the Year resumé.
It’s that kind of pitching by Burns – not to mention the seven scoreless innings in a 1-0 win his previous start – that will make the difference if the Reds plan to win in 2027.
Especially without Greene.
The Reds improved to 18-6 in Burns’ starts this year when they beat the Cardinals.
If Singer comes back, the top of the Reds’ starting pitching depth would look like this heading into spring training (including season numbers in parentheses, plus last start):
- RHP Chase Burns (14-2, 2.51, 24 GS) — 5 IP, 2 R, 8/2 K/BB, ND
- LHP Nick Lodolo (3-2, 4.52, 14 GS) — 5 IP, 0 R, 2/2 K/BB, ND
- LHP Andrew Abbott (6-8, 4.07, 26 GS) — 6.1 IP, 2 R, 6/2 K/BB, L
- RHP Rhett Lowder (4-8, 5.17, 19 GS) — 6.2 IP, 4 R, 5/2 K/BB, ND
- RHP Brady Singer (5-11, 4.66, 24 GS) — 6.0, 3 R, 4/2 K/BB, ND
The Reds also have lefty Brandon Williamson, who flashed high upside as a rookie in 2023 before injuries derailed much of the next three seasons. He’s due back from the injured list in the next week or two.
Rookie Chase Petty also has shown promise this season.
And then what if Greene makes the unlikely quicker-rather-than-later return from the 12-to-18-month surgery rehab? Could he rejoin a rotation down the stretch in a playoff race? The bullpen?
“We’re way too far out to know anything of what happens when he comes back and where it is. He’s got to be completely healthy and ready to go,” Krall said. “We’re not going to rush it back just to rush it back. We want to make sure that he’s here for the long haul, not just a month or so.”
Either way, Krall said the club is confident in Greene’s ability overall to make a full recovery from a second Tommy John surgery, something history suggests can be a steeper climb than the first elbow reconstruction.
“He’s going to put in the work. We know that,” Krall said. “It’s just going to be dependent on how long it takes. We’re very optimistic that he’ll be back.”
This article originally appeared on Cincinnati Enquirer: Say hello to the Reds ace, Chase Burns, in '27 absence of Hunter Greene
