It's now or never as we reach the final week of the regular season in 2026 Ohio high school football. Playoff berths and pairings will be decided, with the six-round tournaments beginning next week.
The Cincinnati area has teams in seven regions. The top 12 teams in each region qualify for the playoffs. The top four receive first-round byes, and the next four get to host the first round of the playoffs. Seeds determine home field for the third round of the playoffs as well, giving teams more incentive to get as high a seed as they can.
The full ratings are available on the OHSAA site. Joe Eitel posts the numbers on his web site and for Week 10, he makes projections on points and possible seeds for each team in Ohio. Those calculations are reflected
in the analysis below for Cincinnati teams to know what they need to do.
The formula for determining the numbers can be studied here.
In short, teams get credit for each win and for each win their opponents get, with more points credited for bigger schools. The OHSAA calculates non-Ohio schools based on where their enrollment falls in Ohio divisional breakdowns.
Division I, Region 4
Princeton, Elder and Lakota West have clinched first-round byes. Princeton wins the No. 1 seed by beating Fairfield. Elder gets it with a win and Princeton loss. Elder is guaranteed top three even with a loss to 1-6 Mt. Zion Prep (Maryland), and West can drop to four with a loss to Oak Hills.
Moeller, Winton Woods, St. Xavier and Lebanon are battling for fourth place and the final bye. None of them are assured of a bye if they win, but are out of bye contention if they lose. Lebanon and Winton Woods play each other, while Moeller and St. X host out-of-state schools. Moeller, which is currently fourth, has an edge over the Lebanon/Winton Woods winner but would still be scoreboard-watching. Winton Woods clinches the bye with a win and a Moeller loss.
Springboro, currently in eighth place, is the only other team that has clinched a playoff spot.
A scrum in the Greater Miami Conference will decide the final playoff spots. Besides Princeton and Lakota West, the other games are Middletown at Hamilton, Sycamore at Lakota East and Colerain at Mason.
Middletown, Fairfield and Oak Hills are guaranteed spots with a win. So is Little Miami from the Eastern Cincinnati Conference, which plays 4-5 West Clermont. Fairfield would clinch a first-round home game by upsetting Princeton.
Lakota East gets in with a win and losses by Oak Hills and Colerain. If one of them wins, East will be scoreboard-watching and keeping a close eye on Eitel’s numbers Friday night. With a loss, Oak Hills can still get the last spot but needs both East and Colerain to lose to have its best shot. Colerain is eliminated with a loss.
With a loss, Little Miami is in if both Oak Hills and Colerain lose. If either or both win, the Panthers, who are enjoying their first winning season since 2019, will be waiting for the final numbers.
Region 4 - 1. Princeton (9-0) 30.25, 2. Elder (7-2) 27.4949, 3. Lakota West (8-1) 24.5778, 4. Moeller (6-3) 20.0152, 5. Winton Woods (7-2) 18.5889, 6. St. Xavier (5-4) 18.5556, 7. Lebanon (7-2) 17.2944, 8. Springboro (6-3) 16.6278, 9. Middletown (5-4) 15.9111, 10. Fairfield (5-4) 13.3611, 11. Little Miami (6-3) 13.15, 12. Lakota East (5-4) 12.6611, 13. Oak Hills (4-5) 11.4833, 14. Colerain (4-5) 9.9889, 15. Mason (3-6) 6.7167
Division II, Region 8
Anderson has clinched a first-round bye but does not control its destiny for the No. 1 seed. The Raptors can drop to two with a win and as low as three with a loss.
Green Machine teams Harrison and Badin have clinched playoff spots. Harrison has clinched a first-round home game and will clinch a bye with a win over Northwest. Badin, currently seventh, can earn a bye with a win over McNicholas but needs help from multiple teams above them. The Rams will clinch a home game with a win but can drop out of the top eight with a loss.
La Salle, Talawanda and Withrow all clinch spots with a win. La Salle and Withrow are heavily favored on paper while Talawanda hosts Blanchester (5-4).
Edgewood, Kings and Turpin are on the playoff bubble, which is a jumbled collection of eight teams likely battling for only two or three spots. Those three all need a win to improve their chances, but a loss likely eliminates them. The bubble is further muddled by the fact that two of them, Butler and Fairborn, both 6-3, play each other so one of them will gain a lot of points.
Edgewood, currently 12th, has more breathing room with its potential points and plays 6-3 Monroe this week. Kings and Turpin need more help to get in, win or lose. Ross, 3-6, has an outside shot at the 12th seed but needs a win and a lot of help.
Region 8 - 1. Anderson (8-1) 26.9167, 2. Trotwood-Madison (7-1) 24.6111, 3. Lima Senior (8-1) 21.6111, 4. Harrison (7-2) 21.5167, 5. Troy (7-2) 19.5111, 6. Cols. West (9-0) 17.6111, 7. Badin (7-2) 16.7222, 8. La Salle (4-5) 14.8278, 9. Talawanda (7-2) 14.8111, 10. Withrow (6-3) 14.1, 11. Xenia (5-4) 11.2722, 12. Edgewood (5-4) 11.1111, 13. Kings (5-4) 11.1, 14. Turpin (4-5) 11.0333, 15. Vandalia Butler (6-3) 10.6833, 16. Fairborn (6-3) 10.5333
Division III, Region 12
This is a tightly competitive region for seeding. All 12 playoff spots have been decided, but only two teams (Bellbrook and Tippecanoe) have clinched byes and one other (Chillicothe) has clinched a first-round home game.
Cincinnati teams in the playoffs are McNicholas, Northwest, Hughes, Indian Hill, Goshen and Monroe.
McNicholas gets a bye with a win over Badin (7-2) and a loss by either Northwest (to 7-2 Harrison), or by Chillicothe. The Rockets can still get a bye, win or lose, and likely get a first-round home game either way but can drop to ninth with a loss.
Northwest clinches a first-round home game with a win but have a decent chance to still get one with a loss. The Knights can get a bye with help.
Hughes and Indian Hill have a great chance of getting a first-round home game with a win and an outside chance at a bye. They can still finish in the top eight with a loss. Goshen has a lesser chance at a home game with a win and a slight chance with a loss. Monroe can’t get a home game, win or lose.
Region 12 - 1. Bellbrook (9-0) 28.4944, 2. Tipp City Tippecanoe (8-1) 25.4778, 3. Chillicothe (8-1) 21.1611, 4. McNicholas (7-2) 19.1722, 5. Washington C.H. Miami Trace (8-1) 19.0167, 6. Northwest (8-1) 17.5722, 7. Hughes (8-1) 17.4, 8. Chillicothe Unioto (7-2) 17.0303, 9. Indian Hill (7-2) 16.5658, 10. Goshen (8-1) 14.1056, 11. Kettering Archbishop Alter (5-4) 11.2727, 12. Monroe (6-3) 10.7879, 13. Day. Chaminade Julienne (3-6) 6.1162, 14. Mount Healthy (2-7) 5.202, 15. Day. David H Ponitz (2-6) 3.7844, 16. Tipp City Bethel (3-6) 3.2576,
Division IV, Region 16
Wyoming has clinched a first-round bye and will clinch the No. 1 seed if they beat Deer Park this week. The Cowboys could drop as low as three with a loss.
Cincinnati Hills Christian Academy and North College Hill have clinched first-round home games. CHCA clinches a bye with a win, while NCH would need help elsewhere to earn a bye. Both can still get byes with a loss.
Wilmington hosts New Richmond this week in a crucial game. Wilmington has clinched a playoff spot and will earn a home game with a win, and can get a first-round bye with some help. They can still get a home game with a loss and help.
New Richmond clinches a spot with a win. With a loss, the Lions get in for sure with a loss by either Eaton or Meadowdale but can also get a spot with help elsewhere.
Region 16 - 1. Wyoming (9-0) 22.2677, 2. Cincinnati Hills Christian Academy (8-1) 19.2389, 3. North College Hill (8-0) 18.642, 4. Urbana (6-3) 17.3111, 5. London (7-2) 17.2667, 6. Germantown Valley View (7-2) 16.4889, 7. Day. Oakwood (7-2) 15.5278, 8. Wilmington (5-4) 15.1611, 9. Springfield Kenton Ridge (8-1) 14.2111, 10. New Richmond (5-4) 9.0278, 11. Day. Dunbar (5-4) 8.3747, 12. Eaton (4-5) 7.1278, 13. Clinton-Massie (2-7) 6.0056, 14. Day. Meadowdale (3-6) 5.3118, 15. Clark Montessori (4-5) 4.3655, 16. Washington C.H. Washington (3-6) 3.8278
Division V, Region 20
The standings are tight after the top two teams and a lot of things can happen. Williamsburg, Waynesville and Summit Country Day have clinched playoff spots and are all battling for first-round byes. All three are in great shape to get one with a win this week. Williamsburg has clinched a home game, win or lose, and the other two need to win to assure themselves of that.
Fenwick, currently sixth, clinches a spot with a win and is highly likely to get in with a loss. The Falcons could still get a first-round bye and have a decent chance at a home game, win or lose.
Several other locals are in a tight scramble to advance, as 14 teams are mathematically alive for six remaining spots. Blanchester, currently 15th, clinches a spot with a win over 7-2 Talawanda, according to Eitel, but is likely eliminated with a loss. Gamble Montessori, Mariemont, Madeira, Clermont Northeastern and Purcell Marian all have a chance with a win and help. Gamble and Mariemont are in the most comfortable positions in this group with their projected points. Gamble has a decent chance to qualify even with a loss, while the rest are either eliminated with a loss or have a slim chance. Mariemont plays Madeira this week.
Region 20 - 1. St. Paris Graham Local (8-1) 21.0667, 2. Williamsburg (8-1) 17.5667, 3. Waynesville (7-2) 13.1722, 4. Casstown Miami East (8-1) 12.9394, 5. Summit Country Day (5-3) 12.0057, 6. Fenwick (4-5) 10.85, 7. Arcanum (6-3) 10.8209, 8. Miamisburg Day. Christian (6-3) 9.8535, 9. Springfield Greenon (6-2) 9.4108, 10. West Liberty-Salem (5-3) 8.5674, 11. Carlisle (5-4) 8.0722, 12. Jamestown Greeneview (5-4) 7.8855, 13. Gamble Montessori (6-3) 7.1701, 14. Mariemont (5-4) 6.7525, 15. Blanchester (5-4) 6.7389, 16. Clermont Northeastern (4-5) 6.6312
Division VI, Region 24
This region is also tight and a lot of things can happen.
Cincinnati College Preparatory Academy (8-1) has clinched a first-round home game. Deer Park (8-1) has clinched a playoff spot.
CCPA wins a first-round bye with a win over Wheeling Central Catholic and a loss by Deer Park to Wyoming (9-0). With a loss and a loss by Deer Park, the Lions still have a likely chance to get a bye.
With an upset of Wyoming, Deer Park clinches a home game and will get a bye with a loss by any team currently in the top four, but the Wildcats can still pass any of them in points instead. With a loss, Deer Park could still get a bye or a first-round home game but will be watching the numbers.
Miami Valley Christian Academy and St. Bernard-Elmwood Place do not control their destiny. Both play winless teams this week and can improve their chances with a win but can still get in with a loss. Six teams in the region have clinched spots, and MVCA and SBEP are two of the eight teams battling for the remaining six spots. Four of them – Madison-Plains, Mechanicsburg, St. Henry and Versailles – clinch spots with a win but all have tough matchups on paper.
Region 24 - 1. New Madison Tri-Village (9-0) 18.2121, 2. Cincinnati College Preparatory (8-1) 17.4611, 3. Portsmouth West (8-1) 16.2278, 4. Chillicothe Zane Trace (8-1) 14.8434, 5. Chillicothe Huntington (6-3) 14.697, 6. Deer Park (8-1) 14.6723, 7. St. Henry (6-3) 14.3111, 8. Mechanicsburg (7-2) 13.1212, 9. Covington (6-3) 12.8611, 10. Miami Valley Christian Academy (6-3) 12.5382, 11. Versailles (6-3) 12.1611, 12. London Madison-Plains (7-1) 12.0139, 13. St. Bernard-Elmwood Place (6-2) 11.8384, 14. Anna (6-3) 9.8056, 15. Frankfort Adena (4-4) 7.1181, 16. Lucasville Valley (6-3) 6.4667
Division VII, Region 28
Cincinnati Country Day (4-5) clinches a first-round home game with a win. The Nighthawks can still get one with a loss and losses by two of the three teams right below them (Fort Loramie, Tri-County North, Upper Scioto Valley), or a loss by one of them and help elsewhere.
Region 28 - 1. Maria Stein Marion Local (9-0) 19.8778, 2. Ansonia (8-1) 17.5771, 3. DeGraff Riverside (8-1) 11.6333, 4. Waynesfield-Goshen (7-2) 10.7576, 5. Minster (6-3) 10.3056, 6. New Bremen (4-5) 8.2611, 7. Cincinnati Country Day (4-5) 7.4559, 8. Fort Loramie (5-4) 6.404, 9. Lewisburg Tri-County North (5-4) 5.7525, 10. McGuffey Upper Scioto Valley (5-4) 4.45, 11. Fort Recovery (3-6) 3.6667, 12. Manchester (4-4) 3.119, 13. Dola Hardin Northern (3-6) 2.3283, 14. Mt. Victory Ridgemont (2-7) 1.8278, 15. S. Charleston Southeastern Local (3-6) 1.6901, 16. Cedarville (2-7) 1.6105
This article originally appeared on Cincinnati Enquirer: Computer ratings offer playoff outlook for Cincinnati football teams
