Democrati Amy Acton is favored to win the Ohio governor's race after her opponent aired an attack ad featuring her estranged mother, according to top political forecasters.
The Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball shifted the nationally-watched race between Acton and Republican Vivek Ramaswamy from a tossup to "lean Democrat." The move came after Ramaswamy's campaign confirmed it will spend $4 million to air the controversial ad that leaked online.
Cook and Sabato are non-partisan organizations that analyze state and federal elections.
"Democrats need a lot to go right in order to win in Ohio," wrote Sabato's editors, Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman. "But a lot appears to be going right."
Acton's birth mother, Donna Stearns Arthur, accused
Acton in the ad of lying about her upbringing and urged Ohioans not to vote for her. Arthur stayed married to Acton's stepfather after he was charged with sexually abusing a young Acton and ultimately lost custody of her children.
"I've always known that she was deeply sick and unwell, and it's sad to see Vivek Ramaswamy exploit her all for his own political gain," Acton said in a statement.
Gov. Mike DeWine condemned the ad one day after Vice President JD Vance told Republicans to stop complaining about it. Sen. Jon Husted and Secretary of State Frank LaRose said they wouldn't have run the ad. Former Attorney General Dave Yost, who briefly ran against Ramaswamy in the GOP primary, said "there’s a better way to lead."
President Donald Trump, on the other hand, called it a "very powerful ad" and encouraged Ramaswamy to keep it on air. Ramaswamy's campaign rebuffed DeWine's call to take it down.
Forecasters initially gave Ramaswamy the upper hand after years of Democratic losses in Ohio, then shifted the race to a toss-up. But recent polls show Acton gaining ground as Republicans contend with backlash over the cost of living.
In Cook's analysis, Senate and governors editor Jessica Taylor wrote: "The campaign’s decision this week to air a deeply personal attack ad against opponent Amy Acton confirmed that the race is slipping away from him − and perhaps creating some collateral damage for fellow Republicans on the way."
Ramaswamy isn't budging on the ad, saying in campaign stops on Oct. 23 that the ad had nothing to do with abuse and the media was covering up for Acton.
"(Ramaswamy) had obvious flaws that I think a lot of Republicans knew about going in, but he was able to clear the field with Trump's blessing," Taylor told the statehouse bureau. "He has proved to be a very divisive and controversial candidate, which is exactly what we saw in the presidential election as well."
Reporter Jessie Balmert contributed to this article.
State government reporter Haley BeMiller can be reached at hbemiller@usatodayco.com or @haleybemiller on X.
This article originally appeared on The Columbus Dispatch: Election analysts say Acton may beat Ramaswamy after attack ad blowback
