It seems like Greater Cincinnati has spent much of the summer waterlogged, but fall is right around the corner.
Despite the region battling 80-degree heat and thunderstorms, it's not unusual for the Midwest to see cooler temperatures this time of year, and residents are likely wondering about one dreaded season: winter.
But a new long-range forecast suggests the Buckeye State could be headed for a warmer season with less-than-usual snowfall.
Here's what to know about Ohio's winter forecast, including what weather Cincinnati could face.
When does winter start?
The first day of winter, marked by the winter solstice, is Dec. 21 at 3:50 p.m. ET.
New forecast calls for less snow in Ohio. What about the Farmers' Almanac?
A winter outlook released by weather forecasting service OpenSnow favors above-average temperatures across much of the northern United
States, including Ohio and Cincinnati, while projecting below-normal snowfall across the Upper Midwest and the Great Lakes region.
However, according to the Farmers' Almanac, across the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest, "temperatures should average near normal overall," but that does not mean winter will be mild.
"Fast-moving clippers, sudden cold snaps, and brief snowy periods are likely, although milder breaks may frequently interrupt the wintry weather. Farther north, the Plains, Midwest, and Great Lakes could experience sudden snow squalls, blustery winds, and bursts of bitter cold," the Farmers' Almanac predicted.
Why does the new forecast call for less snow in Ohio?
OpenSnow's outlook is based largely on an expected "super El Niño," a climate pattern marked by unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean that can influence weather patterns around the globe. Forecasters compared this year's developing conditions with previous strong El Niño winters while also considering seasonal weather models and other atmospheric signals.
For the Great Lakes region, the OpenSnow forecast is:
- Below-normal snowfall.
- Above-normal temperatures.
- Near-average precipitation overall.
According to the forecast, warmer temperatures − rather than an unusually dry winter− are expected to be the primary reason snowfall could end up below average. Strong El Niño winters often keep Arctic air bottled up farther north, reducing the number of prolonged cold periods needed to support frequent snow events.
Even so, forecasters caution that seasonal outlooks made months in advance carry significant uncertainty, and should not be interpreted as predictions of individual storms.
Has NOAA released its 2026-27 winter forecast?
Not yet.
NOAA forecasts indicate that El Niño will likely persist through the winter and have increased confidence that it could become a very strong event. However, the agency's official seasonal outlook for temperatures and precipitation later this winter has not yet been released.
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center says El Niño is expected to continue strengthening through the end of the year, with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter of 2026-27. Forecasters also say there is a 69% chance the event could become historic, exceeding the strength of every El Niño observed since recordkeeping began in 1950.
Does a warmer winter mean Cincinnati won't get snow?
Not necessarily.
Seasonal outlooks describe how an entire winter is expected to compare with historical averages, not whether individual snowstorms will occur.
A winter can still produce significant snowstorms while finishing with above-average temperatures overall. One or two major winter storms can also quickly boost seasonal snowfall totals even during a generally mild season.
For now, forecasters say the strongest signal is for a warmer-than-average winter across much of the country, though exactly how much snow Ohio and Cincinnati ultimately sees will depend on the track and timing of individual storm systems in the months ahead.
What's the two-month forecast for the Ohio Valley?
Here is what the remainder of August and September is predicted to look like, according to The Old Farmer's Almanac.
August
- Aug. 20-28: Scattered thunderstorms, warm.
- Aug 29-31: Sunny, mild.
September
- Sep 1-9: Scattered showers; warm, then cooler.
- Sep 10-20: Sunny; cool, then warmer.
- Sep 21-30: Scattered showers east, sunny west; cool.
How does the Old Farmer's Almanac make predictions?
As the country's oldest weather forecaster, The Old Farmer's Almanac predicts weather trends by "comparing solar patterns and historical weather conditions with current solar activity," using solar science, climatology and meteorology disciplines to make long-range predictions, according to its website.
This article originally appeared on Cincinnati Enquirer: How much snow, cold will Ohio see in winter 2026? See new forecast
