Memphis athletic director Ed Scott always keeps a close eye on the men's basketball program.
But never more so than the past six months. Tigers coach Penny Hardaway, faced with the legitimate prospect of losing the job he cherishes, presented Scott with a plan in March for how to rebound from a dreadful 13-19 season.
Since then, Scott has attentively monitored the situation. Hardaway largely overhauled his coaching staff. He assembled a promising roster — and did so with an increased sense of urgency. He has been more visible and vocal, engaging with fans to drum up more support from both the revenue sharing and ticket sales standpoints.
So far, so good.
"I am so proud of Penny. He's done a phenomenal job of stepping up in the ways that he said
he was going to this year," Scott said during an interview with Grind City Media's Gary Parrish on Aug. 18.
The Tigers are due back on campus later this month, at which time they will continue preparing for three preseason exhibition games in October. After that, Hardaway and his team face a grueling regular-season, nonconference schedule that begins with Iowa State (Nov. 2) at the Sanford Pentagon in Sioux Falls, South Dakota.
Let's start the mailbag there.
Will Penny Hardaway actually be coaching for his job (this season)? — Don Curl, via Tiger Basketball Insider text group
Scott, who in July began his third year as athletic director at Memphis, was about as clear as one can be when he addressed the media in March.
"Make no mistake about it, our goal together is to get to the NCAA Tournament," he said.
At about the same time, Scott — who is strikingly candid more often than not — had this to say: “So, my expectation is that if Penny’s plan is as good as I believe it is and one we’re going to support, then he needs to make the NCAA Tournament.”
That seems pretty straightforward.
Now, is it literally a zero-tolerance policy? Get back to March Madness, no matter what, or else? Probably not. For illustrative purposes: If all-out calamity strikes (i.e., Memphis' entire starting lineup suffers season-ending injuries before January) and the Tigers fall short of the postseason again, will Scott can Hardaway? That seems like a stretch.
But, yes. Based on Scott's own words, an NCAA Tournament appearance is the expectation. If that doesn't happen — and there aren't any extremely extenuating circumstances — it's difficult to envision a 10th season for Hardaway as coach.
For this gauntlet non-conference schedule, what record do you predict for us to make the NCAA tournament? — DeMario Rankin, via Tiger Basketball Insider text group
Memphis will play 14 nonconference games this season (one more than previous seasons).
And per usual, it's no cupcake. The Tigers start the season with a murderer's row that includes Iowa State, VCU, Vanderbilt and Louisville in a span of 13 days. In December, they have Baylor, Grand Canyon and Texas, all within 11 days.
Given the projected strength of the entire nonconference schedule, I don't think it's a stretch to suggest that 7-7 would be enough for an at-large bid, should Memphis fall short of the automatic bid.
For the record: I expect the Tigers will finish 8-6 outside of American Conference play.
Any more word on what is happening with Nemanja Popović's eligibility? — Mark Hamilton, via Tiger Basketball Insider text group
Optimism continues to permeate the Memphis athletic department that 24-year-old Serbian center Nemanja Popović will play games for the Tigers this season.
Memphis does not want to potentially jeopardize Popović's chances of being ruled eligible by the NCAA, so it has not officially announced him as a signee. The school is choosing to let the NCAA move through the process at its own (customarily deliberate) pace in the hope that that will limit any possible snags in the future.
Any projection for starting 5? — Lamar Bell, via Tiger Basketball Insider text group
Starting lineup projection, 3.0.
The last time I went through this exercise, it was early July. I had not yet seen the Tigers as a team firsthand, and there were still several weeks of summer workouts left.
I still believe the starting point guard job will go to Jayden Reid. Assuming Popović is eligible, I expect him to start at the 5. I've got Tylik Weeks penciled in, either at the 3 or 4.
I'm just not sure about shooting guard. I thought it would be Brandin Cummings — and he may very well win the job. But Luke Almodovar has made a rather compelling case for himself as the starting 2. By all accounts, he tore it up this summer, consistently putting his shooting ability, athleticism, hard-nosed hustle and defensive intensity on display.
Which raises the question: Would Hardaway start both Cummings and Almodovar? That would raise the scoring bar significantly. But it would also likely lower the defense and rebounding bar considerably.
I think the most probable starting five (assuming Popović is available) would be Reid, Weeks, Maxim Logue, Popović and either Cummings or Almodovar. Then again, I could also envision a scenario where Hardaway would sacrifice some rebounding for better shooting, starting sharpshooter Rihards Vavers at the 3 and bringing Logue off the bench.
Reach sports writer Jason Munz at jason.munz@commercialappeal.com, follow him @munzly on X.
This article originally appeared on Memphis Commercial Appeal: What it will take for Memphis basketball to get an NCAA at-large bid this season
