We're three weeks into the 2026 football season, and the American Conference looks as unpredictable as everyone expected.
Teams like Navy and East Carolina haven't looked like title contenders after getting plenty of hype in the offseason. And teams like North Texas and Tulsa have looked much better than forecasts had projected.
Most teams haven't begun conference play, so it's all still open heading into Week 4. More than half of the teams have realistic cases to reach the American title game, and there are surely plenty of twists and turns to come.
Here's what we've learned about the conference so far in 2026.
No one has any idea who the best team is
As of Sept. 22, the odds to win the conference look like this:
- Memphis (+420)
- UTSA (+440)
- South Florida (+500)
- Tulsa (+800)
- Army (+1000)
- Tulane (+1000)
- Navy (+1100)
- North Texas (+1300)
- Florida Atlantic (+1400)
- East Carolina (+1700)
- Temple (+2500)
- Rice (+8000)
- UAB (+10000)
- Charlotte (+40000)
Navy has had a significant drop after opening the season as the favorites
in some sportsbooks. The Midshipmen (1-1 overall, 0-1 in the American) fell to FAU, giving them a loss before most teams have even started conference play. East Carolina also has dropped after losing to Alabama and Appalachian State.
And there's still no clear favorite at the top.
Whose stock is up?
Tulsa's win over Oklahoma State in Week 1 — where the Golden Hurricane basically mauled the Cowboys in the trenches en route to a win that the 24-10 scoreline doesn't really do justice — still stands as the American's only win over a power conference team this season. Tulsa has a chance to pull off another power conference upset this weekend when it visits Arkansas.
North Texas went into the season without high expectations under new coach Neal Brown, but the Mean Green have been impressive so far. They had moments against Indiana in the season opener, then annihilated UNLV 44-6 before falling at Texas State in a shootout.
FAU, with its win over Navy, looks like a team that could be much-improved in 2026. The Owls had a major turnover problem in 2025, but if they can take care of the ball, they won't be an easy out.
Army also looks like it'll again be a tough out. The Black Knights went toe-to-toe with South Florida. No one will be excited to play them this season.
Whose stock is down?
East Carolina lost to Alabama to open its season, but the Week 2 loss to Appalachian State was much more concerning. The Pirates bounced back with a win over Old Dominion, but they look offensively challenged, not like a legit title contender.
Navy got plenty of preseason title buzz in part because it had what looked like a relatively easy schedule. But then the Midshipmen lost to FAU, and suddenly it looks like Navy will probably have to run the table in conference play to make the title game. That schedule includes Tulsa, UTSA, North Texas and Memphis.
Tulane didn't have super high expectations, but the Green Wave barely escaped at home with a win over South Alabama and had major offensive problems to open the season at Duke.
Then there's Charlotte, which was already at the bottom of the conference. But the 49ers lost to FCS-level The Citadel to drop even further.
Reach sports writer Jonah Dylan at jonah.dylan@commercialappeal.com or on X @thejonahdylan.
This article originally appeared on Memphis Commercial Appeal: What we've learned about American Conference football through 3 weeks
