Trying to set realistic expectations for Memphis football in 2026 is a fool's errand.
On one hand, the Tigers have a new coach in Charles Huff and a roster that's made up almost entirely of transfers. That usually means growing pains are coming.
On the other hand, the American Conference is wide open in 2026. Every other team expected to be near the top of the conference also has major question marks. And Memphis has one of the strongest rosters of the bunch.
It means that Huff is 0-0 and already under some degree of pressure to win.
“Pressure is earned," Huff said at American Conference media days in July. "You earn that. It’s a right to feel pressure. Pressure to unprepared teams and people seems like it’s heavy. But pressure to the prepared is an opportunity.”
So what should the Tigers' expectations be in 2026?
What the roster says about Memphis' expectations in 2026
Financially, Memphis is ahead of everyone in the conference except South Florida, which like Memphis is at full revenue sharing. But the Bulls also have a new coach and dozens of new players. They have a strong roster and a potential starting quarterback with SEC experience in Michael Van Buren. But they also have questions about how quickly their team will come together under first-time head coach Brian Hartline.
Memphis has plenty of proven production, even if there are very few returning players. J'Mond Tapp, Mike Montgomery and Ian Foster were All-Sun Belt players in 2025 who could've gone to power conference teams. There's plenty of raw speed and talent in the receiver room, while the running back room has experience from the Power Four level in Dallan Hayden (Colorado) and Manny Covey (Cincinnati).
So it's fair to say this is one of the best — if not the best — rosters in the American.
What the schedule says about Memphis' expectations in 2026
Memphis avoids UTSA in 2026, but that's about the only good news when it comes to the schedule. The Tigers will face East Carolina, South Florida, Tulane, Army and Navy. Those six teams, plus Memphis, likely will be the top seven conference teams in most preseason rankings.
Memphis also plays those five teams in consecutive games. After opening conference play against Charlotte and UAB — considered the bottom two teams — the Tigers play only expected contenders until the last week of the regular season.
For reference, here's how many games each of the teams in that seven-team tier has against the rest of the group.
- South Florida: 4
- Army: 4
- ECU: 3
- Navy: 2
- UTSA: 3
- Tulane: 4
- Memphis: 5
What's the range of outcomes for Memphis in 2026?
It's wide, obviously. Those five games are theoretically losable. The rest of the conference games look like they should be wins, but every Memphis fan knows what happened last year in Birmingham. And Charlotte took Memphis to the brink twice in 2023 and 2024, so that game isn't exactly a walkover, either.
Then there's the non-conference schedule. Memphis likely will be an underdog at UNLV and at Boise State, and the home opener against Arkansas State could be a tricky potential trap game. So, theoretically, there could be seven or eight games on the schedule that Memphis could lose.
On the flip side: Memphis doesn't have a single game that it can't win. It wouldn't be that surprising if Memphis went to Las Vegas or Boise or both and won, and at that point the Tigers would probably become favorites to win the American.
Ultimately, there's this: Memphis has won at least eight games the past three seasons. That feels like a fair bar for a baseline of a successful season, even if the ceiling is much higher.
Reach sports writer Jonah Dylan at jonah.dylan@commercialappeal.com or on X @thejonahdylan.
This article originally appeared on Memphis Commercial Appeal: What does success look like for Charles Huff, Memphis football in 2026?
