TAMPA, FL — Nobody is quite sure what to expect from Penny Hardaway and Memphis basketball in 2026-27.
Projections from leading analytics gurus range from the demoralizing (a 15-16 record and a fifth-place finish in the American Conference, per Bart Torvik) to the relatively bleak (a No. 95 preseason ranking by Evan Miyakawa) to the encouraging (KenPom’s pick to win the conference title).
Wichita State coach Paul Mills is siding with KenPom.
Never mind, Mills says, that Memphis finished 13-19 last season — with two of those losses courtesy of his Shockers. Never mind that Mills has more wins (four) over Hardaway’s Tigers than any other coach in the past three seasons. Never mind that Memphis’ roster will once again be largely composed of newcomers.
“I pay more attention to the response,” he said in an exclusive interview with The Commercial Appeal at American Conference media day on Oct. 12.
Mills pointed toward the 2023-24 season, when the Tigers got off to a 15-2 start before imploding, losing eight of their last 15 games and missing March Madness altogether.
“Then, they come back (the next season) and run everybody out of the gym and win the league,” Mills said, referring to Memphis’ 29-win season.
“This is a guy (Hardaway) who’s already proved that, ‘Hey, if one season doesn’t go well, we come right back with a vengeance the next year.’ “
Penny Hardaway says 'atmosphere' is back to normal
That’s precisely what Hardaway is banking on.
The ninth-year Tigers coach is all too aware that big swings — in both directions — in short spans can happen. After all, just as Memphis went from a devastating collapse in 2023-24 to a 5-seed in the NCAA Tournament a year later, the Tigers also went from that high to the program’s worst season in more than 50 years despite outspending everyone else in the American Conference by at least $2 million, according to athletic director Ed Scott.
“In the NIL, (transfer) portal era, that can happen. You can have a bad group, and I had a really bad group,” Hardaway told The Commercial Appeal in an exclusive interview. “The young men were good young men. But when it came to basketball, that just wasn’t their first option.”
There is more inspiring Hardaway’s confidence in a turnaround beyond the fact that it has happened before.
“That (was) not a normal Memphis team (last season),” he said. “That (was) not a normal Penny team. We chose wrong (in the transfer) portal. That was last year.
“This year — different. Because they care. There’s belief and buy-in. There’s an accountability. Speaking more about the city and what the city means is what you want to hear. Seeing guys play hard and guard — it’s a different atmosphere. It’s the atmosphere I’m used to.”
Wes Miller also looking for a Memphis basketball bounce-back
Mills isn’t the only coach in the league looking for a bounce-back from the Tigers.
Memphis received four out of a possible 12 first-place votes in the American Conference preseason poll, where it was slotted second behind Wichita State. The Shockers received 140 total points, while Memphis was close on their heels with 131. South Florida (118) was the only other team to top 100 points.
First-year Charlotte coach Wes Miller spent the first two seasons of his tenure at Cincinnati in the American. Miller’s Bearcats were 0-4 against Memphis before leaving for the Big 12, and all four games were decided by seven points or fewer.
“I have so much respect for the job that Penny did in the two years we were in the American while I was (at Cincinnati),” Miller told The Commercial Appeal. “The first thing I’d say is how hard the kids played for him. To me, that’s difficult. Not just how hard they played, but how much depth he was able to utilize and still keep his entire roster engaged and playing hard.”
One of those players Hardaway coached was Landers Nolley II, who also happens to have played for Miller.
“I coached Landers Nolley my second year at Cincinnati, and I gained a lot of respect for Penny, listening to the way Landers spoke about him and (how he) held him in such high regard,” Miller said. “He’s a tremendous coach and the résumé speaks for itself.
“I was in some very close, yeah, we had some great games. What I came to respect was just how consistently the kids played hard and competed. And how much depth he was able to use within their roster.”
Reach sports writer Jason Munz at jason.munz@commercialappeal.com, follow him @munzly on X.
This article originally appeared on Memphis Commercial Appeal: Why Penny Hardaway says this season will be 'different' and why other coaches agree
