How warm will fall be in Memphis? Forecasters release outlook

Summer temperatures may still be in full swing in Memphis, but experts have released their predictions for what fall will be like this year. Pumpkin spice and Halloween have already begun to make a reappearance so far this August, but there is still roughly a month until fall actually arrives in the

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What is the story about?

Summer temperatures may still be in full swing in Memphis, but experts have released their predictions for what fall will be like this year.

Pumpkin spice and Halloween have already begun to make a reappearance so far this August, but there is still roughly a month until fall actually arrives in the Northern Hemisphere.

Both the National Weather Service and The Old Farmer’s Almanac have released what they expect fall to look like across the nation, and to little surprise, Memphis can expect warmer-than-normal temperatures for the next few months.

Here is what Memphis can expect from fall this year.

When is the first day of fall?

The first official day of fall 2026 is Sept. 22, marking the autumnal equinox in the Northern Hemisphere.

For meteorologists, however, fall begins earlier.

The meteorological fall season starts Sept. 1 and runs through Nov. 30, aligning with the calendar months used to track seasonal weather patterns.

What will the weather be like in Memphis this fall?

The Old Farmer’s Almanac's national forecast for fall 2026.

According to the Climate Prediction Center from the National Weather Service, from September to December, Memphis has a 33-40% chance of having temperatures above normal. There is a similar chance for precipitation during this period to also be above normal.

Similarly, the Old Farmer's Almanac predicts that Memphis, and the rest of Tennessee, will have a warm, dry fall season. According to the Almanac's forecast, temperatures in September and October are expected to average about one degree below normal.

What is fall usually like in Memphis?

To accurately reflect fall temperatures in Memphis, only measurements from Sept. 22 to Dec. 21 will be included. During this period, the average maximum temperature will drop over 30 degrees in preparation for the coldest time of the year.