California's seniors are a growing population, with estimates showing that they will make up over a quarter of the state's population by 2040, so Social Security benefits many in the state.
Social Security recipients should expect slightly larger payments in 2027, according to forecasts by senior groups tracking the government program.
Both The Senior Citizens League and AARP released new Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) predictions for recipients ahead of next month's announcement by the Social Security Administration. The COLA – a yearly benefit change to Social Security and Supplemental Security Income payments – aims to counteract inflation so recipients don't lose their buying power.
At the beginning of 2026, SSA recipients received a 2.8%
COLA for Social Security and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) payments, increasing checks by about $56 per month, according to the SSA's COLA Fact Sheet and American Association of Retired Persons.
Next year's COLA is expected to be higher than this year's increase, according to both organizations.
"No matter if the COLA announcement comes in slightly higher or slightly lower than our prediction, seniors will probably end up disappointed in the long run," said Senior Citizens League Executive Director Shannon Benton. "The reality is that older Americans allocate their budgets differently than people still in the workforce, so inflation hits them differently."
Over the last 12 months, inflation increased by about 3.4%, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor and Statistics' Sept. 11 consumer price index update.
"The continued growth in consumer prices is largely due to tariffs and the spike in energy prices stemming from the conflict in Iran, effects of which are 'rippling through the economy,'" Indivar Dutta-Gupta, distinguished visiting fellow with the National Academy of Social Insurance, said in AARP's Sept. 11 forecast.
Here's what to know about the upcoming COLA update and September Social Security payments.
Newest forecasts for 2027 Social Security Cost-of-Living Adjustment
The Senior Citizens League said on Sept. 11 that recipients should anticipate a 3.5% increase to Social Security checks in 2027.
If that forecast holds, the average Social Security check for retired workers would increase by $67.90. This is lower than the group's August prediction, which forecasted a 3.6% increase.
On Sept. 11, the AARP projected a 3.6% increase, which would boost checks by about $75. This is the first year AARP has announced a COLA forecast ahead of the official announcement, the group said.
These COLA predictions are based on the consumer price index, the Federal Reserve interest rate, and the national unemployment rate from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
How will it affect California seniors?
California has millions of seniors, with 17.5% of the state's population aged 65 or older as of July 1, 2025, according to census data.
California also has an estimated 9 million people aged 60 and older, according to the CaliforniaDepartment of Aging. The earliest age seniors can withdraw Social Security benefits is 62 federally, and California follows the same age.
The number of seniors in the state is only expected to increase, meaning an increase in Social Security is vital, especially as poverty among seniors in California has increased every year since 2020.
The Department of Aging forecasts that there will be about 11.4 million people over the age of 60 in the state, increasing to 28% of the population by 2040.
When will the official 2027 Cost-of-living Adjustment be announced?
The official COLA increase for Social Security payments in 2027 will be announced on Wednesday, Oct. 14, 2026.
How is the Cost-of-Living Adjustment calculated?
The COLA is calculated with a formula, per the Social Security Act. The adjustment is based on the Consumer Price Index for urban wage earners and clerical workers (CPI-W) calculated monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. CPI-W is the average change over time in the prices paid by urban wage earners and clerical workers for a market basket of consumer goods and services, according to the bureau.
However, according to Senior Citizens League Executive Director Shannon Benton, the "CPI-W captures the experience of urban wage earners, which doesn't represent the average senior's budget."
When will I get my Social Security check in September?
Regular Social Security retirement benefits for September 2026 are being distributed on the SSA's usual schedule, based on birth date:
- Wednesday, Sept. 9: Birth dates between the 1st and 10th of the month.
- Wednesday, Sept. 16: Birth dates between the 11th and 20th of the month.
- Wednesday, Sept. 23: Birth dates between the 21st and 31st of the month.
Those who began getting benefits before May 1997 were paid on Thursday, Sept. 3.
Recipients of Supplemental Security Income checks were issued their September payments on Tuesday, Sept. 1.
Ernesto Centeno Araujo covers breaking news for the Ventura County Star. He can be reached at ecentenoaraujo@vcstar.com, 805-437-0224 or @ecentenoaraujo on Instagram and X.
This article originally appeared on Palm Springs Desert Sun: How much more could California Social Security recipients get in 2027?
