A hurricane could approach Southern California over Labor Day weekend, though meteorologists say it remains unclear what impacts the regions may experience.
A tropical storm brewing off Mexico's southern coast may develop into a hurricane as early as Sunday or Monday, Sebastian Westerink, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in San Diego, said.
As of the morning of Monday, Aug. 31, though, the direction of that tropical storm is uncertain, Westerink said.
"Whether it'll pan out something similar to what we saw with (Hurricane) Hilary a few years ago, or whether it would just be some light rain, is uncertain right now," Westerink said. "But we're definitely tracking it."
System's impact on Southern California dependent on several factors
The storm has a 90% chance of strengthening into a hurricane, Westerink
said. A system is classified as a hurricane when it reaches sustained winds of at least 74 mph, while tropical storms have sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph.
"It's going to march northward to a certain extent and reach maybe a few hundred miles south and west of the Baja coast, then there's some uncertainty there," Westerink said.
If the system tracks west, it would eventually weaken over cooler waters, and Southern California could see little more than increased cloudiness or humidity, Westerink said.
Should it continue north, it could remain a hurricane for a short time, Westerink said. However, it would begin weakening as it approaches northern Baja, where ocean temperatures below 80 degrees F are less favorable for tropical systems. Sea surface temperatures generally must exceed 80 degrees to sustain hurricane strength, Westerink said.
"And so, the real question is: How much would it weaken?" Westerink said.
One possibility is that the system remains strong enough that it weakens only to a tropical storm by the time it reaches Southern California, Westerink said. Another possibility is that it weakens altogether and transitions into post-tropical remnants, bringing impacts such as heavy rain and gusty winds.
Should Southern Californians be concerned?
The idea of a hurricane possibly brewing may be worrisome, but Westerink said he would not be too concerned.
"If you look historically, we've never had a hurricane make landfall in Southern California, so that's historically been pretty unlikely," Westerink said.
Even with Hurricane Hilary in 2023, which prompted Southern California's first-ever Tropical Storm Warning, it weakened below tropical storm strength just before crossing the border, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
"It was post-tropical by the time it reached Southern California," Westerink said.
Still, Hilary brought unprecedented rainfall to parts of Southern California, including the desert cities of the Coachella Valley, showing that weakening tropical systems can still produce significant impacts.
"So even though direct hurricane or tropical storm landfalls to the West Coast are quite rare, even indirect impacts from tropical cyclones can have a major impact, especially when it comes to rainfall," the NOAA says.
This article originally appeared on Palm Springs Desert Sun: Will a hurricane impact Southern California? Forecast unclear
