A new poll shows a notable shift in support for California's voter ID initiative, with the measure now holding a narrow lead among likely voters.
When asked about Proposition 39, a measure that would require voters to present a government-issued ID when casting a ballot, 48% of likely voters say they would vote in favor of the measure, while 38% say they would vote against it, according to a SurveyUSA poll sponsored by KGTV News 10 and the San Diego Union-Tribune and released Monday, Sept. 21.
Meanwhile, 13% of voters remain undecided.
The findings contrast sharply with other recent polls, including a Public Policy Institute of California survey released Sept. 15 that found likely voters opposed the measure by 12 percentage points.
The survey also
found somewhat stronger support for the state's wealth tax initiative, Proposition 40.
The measure, which would impose a one-time 5% tax on the wealth of California billionaires, is backed by 48% of likely voters, while 40% oppose it.
The SurveyUSA poll found the measure holds an 8-percentage-point advantage, compared with a 6-percentage-point lead in the PPIC poll. It also found a larger share of voters remain undecided, at 12%, compared with 2% in the PPIC poll.
Beyond the ballot races, the poll also explored voters' views on the governor's race, House races and the economy.
Here's what else to know about the poll, which surveyed 1,000 California adults from Sept. 15 to Sept. 20, including 837 registered voters and 742 likely voters.
Becerra holds wide lead over Hilton, poll finds
Democrat Xavier Becerra continues to hold a wide lead over Republican Steve Hilton weeks ahead of California's gubernatorial race.
Becerra has the support of 55% of likely voters, while Hilton captures 33%, according to the SurveyUSA poll. Twelve percent of voters remain undecided.
Voters largely break along party lines, with 80% of Republicans supporting Hilton and 86% of Democrats backing Becerra. Becerra also has stronger support from independents (46%) than Hilton (34%).
The same is true along ideological lines: 74% of conservatives support Hilton, while 85% of liberals back Becerra, who also garners support from a majority of progressives (71%) and moderates (56%).
Geographically, Becerra holds a double-digit lead over Hilton across much of the state, including the greater Los Angeles area (56%), the Central Valley (56%) and the San Francisco Bay Area (60%). His support is weaker in the Inland Empire, where he leads Hilton by just 5 percentage points with 47% support.
The findings mirror other recent polls, including the PPIC poll released Sept. 15 showing Becerra leading Hilton 60% to 38% among likely voters.
What the poll found about House races
Similar to the governor's race, the poll found that 58% of likely voters plan to support a Democratic candidate in their U.S. House race, while 33% say they will vote for a Republican candidate.
Ten percent of voters are undecided about which candidate they'd support.
Support for House races mirrors the governor's race, with voters backing Hilton also tending to support Republican candidates and those backing Becerra often supporting Democrats.
Poll's findings on approval ratings
The poll also measured approval ratings, finding that all but one of the officials and institutions tested have negative net approval ratings among registered voters. Here is a breakdown of net approval ratings from SurveyUSA's poll:
- Gov. Gavin Newsom: +2 net approval rating (44% approve and 42% disapprove)
- The California legislature: -5 net approval rating (34% approve and 39% disapprove)
- President Donald Trump: -37 (29% approve and 66% disapprove)
- Congress: -48 (17% approve and 65% disapprove)
Californians and the economy
When California adults were asked whether they expect their personal financial situation to be better, worse, or about the same six months from now, 40% said it will remain about the same. Meanwhile, 31% expect to be worse off financially, and 22% expect to be better off.
The poll found that the highest percentage of adults (84%) say the cost of food has increased over the past six months, followed by the cost of transportation or gasoline (77%) and utility bills (63%).
At the same time, only 22% of adults say their incomes have kept pace with their costs, while 72% say they have not. Additionally, 70% say they are concerned about paying bills each month.
When is California’s general election?
California's general election will be held on Tuesday, Nov. 3.
According to state officials, the last day to register to vote for California’s general election is Oct. 19. Counties will begin mailing ballots to registered voters no later than Oct. 5.
This article originally appeared on Palm Springs Desert Sun: New shock survey shows voter ID measure edging ahead in California
