Democratic candidate Xavier Becerra holds a wide margin over Republican Steve Hilton in a new statewide poll that suggests California's race will hinge on affordability issues.
Public Policy Institute of California's poll released Sept. 15 shows Becerra leading Hilton 60% to 38% among likely voters
. The survey also found that 65% of voters say a candidate's position on affordability is very important in determining their gubernatorial pick.In addition to the governor’s race,the poll also delved into voters' views on ballot propositions, House races and the state of California and the rest of the nation.
Here’s what to know about the poll ahead of the November election.
More on California’s governor race
Becerra and Hilton advanced to the general election through California's top-two
primary system, in which all candidates compete on the same ballot regardless of party, and the two highest vote-getters move on to November. Becerra finished first in the June primary with 28% of the vote, while Hilton placed second with 24.6%.
A July survey from the institute found Becerra leading Hilton by 25 points (61% to 36%).
The most recent survey shows that voters are split on partisan lines for their gubernatorial pick: 93% of Democrats support Becerra, and 92% of Republicans favor Hilton, while independents lean toward the Democratic candidate (57% Becerra, 38% Hilton).
Becerra leads Hilton among most demographic groups and in nearly every major region of California, with the Central Valley as the exception, where Hilton holds a 52% to 46% advantage.
Many Californians are interested in news about gubernatorial candidates, with six in 10 voters saying they are following news about candidates for the governor’s election either very (18%) or fairly (40%) closely.
Voters agree there are too many measures on the November ballot
Along with the governor’s race, California voters will also see 14 state propositions — five legislative measures and nine citizens’ initiatives — on the general election ballot.
Most voters, however, say there are too many propositions on the ballot, with 37% agreeing and 40% somewhat.
Among the measures voters will see are contentious propositions on a billionaire tax and voter ID requirements.
A slim majority (52%) say they would vote for Proposition 40, a state wealth tax initiative that would impose a one-time 5% tax on the wealth of the Golden State's billionaires. Forty-six percent of voters say they would vote down the measure.
Voters are divided down party lines: About seven in ten Democrats would vote in favor of the measure, while two in ten Republicans would support it.
For the state’s voter ID initiative — Proposition 39 — 43% of likely voters say they would vote yes on the measure and 55% say they would vote no.
Support for the measure is strongest among Republicans, with 85% in favor, compared to 43% of independents and 19% of Democrats. Support is 50% or lower among most demographic and regional groups, except for adults 55 and older and residents of the Central Valley and Inland Empire, where 57% support it.
Voters lean Democratic for House races
All 52 House seats will be on the November ballot. With newly drawn congressional districts in the wake of Proposition 50 — the voter-approved measure that redrew the state’s districts, creating as many as five new pickup opportunities for Democrats to offset Republican-led redistricting in states such as Texas — the congressional races could reshape the battle.
When asked about their House district race, most voters say they would vote for the Democratic candidate over the Republican candidate (62% to 36%).
Like the governor’s race, voters are split along partisan lines, with more than nine in 10 Democratic and Republican likely voters saying they would choose their party's House candidate. Independents, meanwhile, say they would vote for the Democratic candidate over the Republican candidate (59% to 36%).
Majorities favor the Democratic candidate in House district races across demographic groups and major state regions, though the Central Valley is an exception at 47%.
How California voters see the state, the nation
A majority of likely voters (52%) say the state is headed in the wrong direction. This view is held by 94% of Republicans, 55% of independents, and 32% of Democrats.
Voters in the Central Valley (62%), the Inland Empire (62%), and Orange/San Diego (56%) tend to be more pessimistic about the direction of the state when compared to those in Los Angeles (48%) and the San Francisco Bay Area (46%).
When asked about the economy over the next year, the poll found Californians are increasingly pessimistic. About seven in 10 likely voters (73%) expect bad economic times ahead for the state, including majorities of Democrats (61%), Republicans (90%), and independents (72%). At least two-thirds of Californians across regions and demographic groups expect bad economic conditions in the coming year.
About half of Californians approve of Gov. Gavin Newsom's job performance, with most Democrats approving. Meanwhile, independents are divided, and nearly all Republicans disapprove. Approval is highest in Los Angeles and the Bay Area.
Nationally, about eight in 10 Californians believe the country is headed in the wrong direction. Most Democrats (94%) and independents (80%) agree, while 52% of Republicans say the country is headed in the right direction.
When asked about President Donald Trump’s job performance, about a quarter of Californians approve. Majorities of Democrats (94%) and independents (78%) disapprove of Trump, while two in three Republicans (66%) approve.
Even fewer voters approve (16%) of how Congress is doing its job.
The survey, conducted between Sept. 4 and Sept. 10, included 1,745 California adults and has a margin of error of about 3 percentage points. The margin of error among the 1,103 likely voters is ±3.8 percentage points.
When is California’s general election?
California's general election will be held on Tuesday, Nov. 3.
According to state officials, the last day to register to vote for California’s general election is Oct. 19. Counties will begin mailing ballots to registered voters no later than Oct. 5.
This article originally appeared on Palm Springs Desert Sun: Becerra leads Hilton, voters narrowly back wealth tax, poll finds
