Not too far into the Texas Tech football team's 35-24 victory on Saturday, Sept. 12, at Oregon State, a text came in from an old sportswriter friend: "Tech has regressed to the mean. 2025 was the outlier."
Two weeks into the season, there's more evidence than not for that being true. Oh, the Red Raiders might live up to their status as Big 12 favorites. The quality of the conference is toward the bottom of the Power Four, and if you judge it on each league's best team, who in the Big 12 are you picking against the ACC's Miami right now?
The Red Raiders might indeed make it back to Arlington in December. As we wrote in the rapid-reaction report card, though, a loss is coming — probably losses — if this team doesn't find another gear quickly.
How much money does Texas Tech football receive for Oregon State game?
I said in the off-season there's no way the 2026 Texas Tech defense can be as good as the 2025 version. That's captain obvious stuff. Joey McGuire disagrees — I think genuinely so, because he always believes the best. However, at no point last year was a Tech pass defense burned to the degree it was Saturday, when Oregon State quarterback Braden Atkinson threw for 399 yards and Jesse Legree had 8 catches for 240 yards.
That's a sophomore QB and a freshman receiver, no less.
David Bailey, Romello Height, Lee Hunter and Jacob Rodriguez — four of the first 70 picks in the NFL draft, remember — feasted on quarterbacks. Young ones had no chance. Last year's Tech secondary frequently got to take Siesta Saturday. Up front, Bailey and Height sacked quarterbacks in nothing flat, often with one chasing the passer into the other's arms, pinching the pocket like a vise.
Meanwhile, the volume of game-changing plays Rodriguez made is a once-in-a-generation treat for most programs.
The Red Raiders actually rushed the passer well on Saturday. They pressured Atkinson regularly, put him on the Reser Stadium turf quite a few times — and still he got the throw off all but once. How did Tech win, being almost doubled up 14-8 in the chunk-play category (passes of 15-plus yards, runs of 10-plus)?
The Tech offense has its share of weapons, and they showed up at crunch time: J'Koby Williams on a 38-yard touchdown run, Will Hammond to Coy Eakin on a big-time connection for the 32-yard TD that turned out to be the game winner.
Production's been sporadic, though. Of Tech's 13 full series Saturday — not counting a one-play end of half field-goal try — the Red Raiders managed 15 yards or fewer on seven. That included four three-and-outs in the first five series of the second half.
That's no way to win a conference championship, much less College Football Playoff games.
Hammond still needs time to be his old self as the surgically repaired knee comes around. Thomas Castellanos needs time and practice reps to get in sync with the rest of his offensive mates. Neither of those developments should strike anyone as surprising. In those less-than-ideal circumstances, Hammond completed 20 of 27 passes Saturday, though for only 189 yards. Castellanos ran for the game's first touchdown and threw for the last, in cameo duty for the second week in a row.
To buy the two QBs time to ramp up, the offensive line needed to manhandle Abilene Christian and Oregon State.
More important, they need to ace the Houston test in the Big 12 opener, which comes up on Sept. 18, a Friday night. It's a tough turnaround — flying home from the Pacific Northwest into a short prep week — prompted by TV choosing Red Raiders-Cougars for a special date. Back in the summer, that triggered a lot of complaining from Raiderland.
Thought we might make this far into the season with nothing else to beef about in between.
If only.
This article originally appeared on Lubbock Avalanche-Journal: Two wins don't mask Texas Tech football shortcomings | Williams
