Republican Rep. Mike Lawler led Democratic challenger Cait Conley by three points in an internal poll that his campaign made public one day after the release of an Emerson College/PIX11 News survey that showed Conley ahead by two points.
Both leads fell within the 4.9% margins of error in the two polls, suggesting that New York's 17th Congressional District race is truly as tight as predicted by nonpartisan observers who have rated the contest a toss-up.
Lawler was ahead by 50%-47% with 3% undecided in the poll paid for by his campaign and done by McLaughlin & Associates, a Rockland County-based research firm that works for Republican politicians. The survey of 400 likely voters in the district was conducted from Sept. 28 to Sept. 30.
"Mike Lawler
is in pole position with a month to go," Ciro Riccardi, Lawler's campaign manager, said in a statement touting the poll results on Friday, Oct. 2. He pointed to findings that Lawler led by 12 points with independents and that 48% of voters had unfavorable views of Conley, compared to 42% who viewed her favorably.
Conley's campaign didn't immediately respond to request for comment on the poll results.
Conley led Lawler by 48% to 46% with 7% undecided in the Emerson College/PIX11 poll, which also surveyed 400 likely voters and was conducted Sept. 27-29.
Both polls took place during the seven-day Jewish holiday of Sukkot, and Lawler and his campaign have suggested the one by Emerson College and PIX11 News undercounted his support as a result. Rockland's Orthodox voters — who backed Lawler with near unanimity in 2024 — couldn't use their phones to answer the survey on its first day, campaign strategist Chris Russell told the USA TODAY Network. (An Orthodox community advocate confirms phones were indeed off limits until one hour after sundown on Sept. 27, but not for the remaining days of both polls.)
Lawler, a second-term incumbent, and Conley, an Army combat veteran and former national security official in the Biden administration, are battling for a Hudson Valley swing seat that will help determine which party wins House control in the Nov. 3 midterm election. The 17th District takes in all of Rockland and Putnam counties, the northern half of Westchester and part of Dutchess.
The race is one of 22 House contests around the U.S. currently rated as toss-upsby the Cook Political Report.
Chris McKenna covers government and politics for The Journal News and USA TODAY Network. Reach him at CMcKenna@usatodayco.com.
This article originally appeared on Rockland/Westchester Journal News: Lawler holds slight lead over Conley in NY-17 poll by his campaign
