Winter weather patterns may begin taking shape earlier than usual this year as a strong El Niño pattern influences weather across the United States, according to seasonal forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
While NOAA’s seasonal outlook does not predict specific storms or snowfall totals months in advance, forecasters say current climate patterns could help shape temperature and precipitation trends heading into fall 2026 and the winter season.
In previous years, early winter storms have affected parts of the country as soon as November, with snow and cold weather lasting into March. This year, El Niño could contribute to wetter conditions in some areas and shift typical storm patterns across the United States.
How El Niño could influence fall and winter weather
El Niño occurs when warmer-than-average ocean temperatures develop in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, affecting global weather patterns.
Strong El Niño events can influence the jet stream, which helps guide storms across the country. A stronger Pacific jet stream can bring additional moisture into parts of the southern and eastern United States, increasing the potential for wetter-than-average conditions in some regions.
Forecasters say El Niño winters often bring:
- Wetter conditions across parts of the South
- Warmer-than-average temperatures in some northern areas
- Changes to the typical storm track across the United States
However, colder air from Canada can still push into the central and eastern United States, creating conditions that could support winter storms when combined with moisture from southern storm systems.
NOAA has said that as colder air becomes established across the eastern United States, the combination of Arctic air and an active storm track can increase the potential for strong winter storms and periods of extreme cold.
What could El Niño mean for New York?
For New York and the Northeast, El Niño patterns can lead to a mix of warmer temperatures and increased precipitation during the winter season.
The exact impacts can vary depending on how the jet stream develops and how other climate patterns interact with El Niño.
A strong storm track could bring periods of heavy precipitation, while shifts in temperatures could determine whether that precipitation falls as rain or snow.
Forecasters will continue monitoring ocean temperatures and atmospheric patterns as fall approaches.
When does fall 2026 begin?
The astronomical fall season begins Tuesday, Sept. 22, 2026, with the autumnal equinox.
The equinox marks the point when the sun crosses the equator, creating nearly equal periods of daylight and darkness around the world. After the equinox, daylight hours gradually become shorter until the winter solstice on Dec. 21.
Meteorological fall begins earlier, on Sept. 1, and runs through Nov. 30. Meteorologists use this three-month period to track seasonal weather patterns.
What happens next?
NOAA will continue updating its seasonal outlooks as more data becomes available.
For New Yorkers, the key takeaway is that El Niño could influence the overall weather pattern heading into fall and winter — but it is still too early to know exactly how much snow, cold or severe weather the season will bring.
This article originally appeared on Rockland/Westchester Journal News: Will New York have an early winter? NOAA fall forecast offers clues
