Six weeks are in the books for high school football. What's coming up next in Northeast Florida?
Time to make a few informed predictions about what new storylines the second half might bring to the Florida High School Athletic Association season around Jacksonville.
At least three Northeast Florida RBs will hit 2,000 yards
Is the magic 2,000 number in play this year? Very much so. Three Northeast Florida ball carriers have already topped 1,000 at the halfway point. Paxon's elusive KJ Palmer is up to 1,219 yards for the Golden Eagles, closely followed by Christ's Church senior Jaylin Robinson (1,164) and Hilliard two-sport star DJ Alderman (1,087). Don't count out several other area running backs from getting to 2,000,
including West Nassau's Smo Green, Old Plank Christian's Tremayne Tukes and 2025 state rushing leader Xander Edwards of Bolles.
Northeast Florida's regular-season game of the year will be Oct. 16
The Mandarin-Raines game on Sept. 18 came with big-time buildup, but the 31-13 scoreline was all Vikings. So which game will be Northeast Florida's best of the year? Circle the matchups on Oct. 16, Week 9, often a week that can make or break district goals. Quality contests that week include Bolles at Trinity Christian, private-school powers with 20 combined state championships; Nease at Bartram Trail, a St. Johns County contest in the difficult District 2-5A; and Fletcher at Ponte Vedra, a Beaches battle in the same district. The best matchup of the bunch, though, could be Columbia at White, the likely decider in District 3-4A, pitting the Commanders' 40-point-per-game offense against Columbia's overpowering defensive front.
Four Jacksonville-area teams will qualify from District 2-5A
It's hard for districts to produce more than three regional qualifiers in the current FHSAA format for large schools, because the association has typically set up bigger districts and regions in Classes 4A, 5A and 6A. Nonetheless, take note of District 2-5A. At the moment, four of the top six teams in that region (Mandarin, Fletcher, Nease and Bartram Trail) come from that district, and Ponte Vedra isn't far behind. It's even mathematically possible for a fifth team to squeeze in, but that likely requires a late slump from Gainesville Buchholz or Oakleaf.
An area player will achieve at least nine takeaways
This one might feel like a stretch. But is it, really? Suwannee defensive back Jarquez Gwinn has already intercepted five passes and recovered a fumble in the Bulldogs' 5-1 start. Also on fire in the takeaway department is Bolles junior Jaxon Flowers, who has made the instant transition from avoiding interceptions (as a quarterback) to hunting them down (as a safety). Flowers has picked off six passes in five games, and also blocked a punt Sept. 25. Players like Fort White's Marvion Wallace and Tocoi Creek's Karter Alvarez are in the mix, too. A 10-takeaway season is an infrequent feat, achieved by players like Fletcher's Jalen Mitchell in 2018 and Sandalwood's Jadon Canady in 2020.
Bolles' Asher Ghioto will make a run at 50 career sacks
The five-star edge rusher, a top-five national prospect for USA TODAY in the 2028 class, is now in a quarterback-squashing rhythm. His three-sack night against Baldwin brings him to 37 for his career at Bolles. Is the 50-sack mark, while still a junior, in reach? Maybe. Still to come are KIPP Bold City, Trinity Christian, Jackson and Gainesville Buchholz in the regular season. That's likely followed by an extended run in the Class 2A playoffs, where Bolles will be a heavy favorite to win regionals (Florida High, Pensacola Catholic and Walton have five wins but not a comparable strength of schedule) and advance to the final four. For those wondering, the National Federation of State High School Associations does not maintain a record for career sacks.
This article originally appeared on Florida Times-Union: 5 bold predictions for Jacksonville high school football second half
