MaxPreps & math: Will Jacksonville's football playoff race make sense?

Welcome to football math class, brought to you by MaxPreps and the Florida High School Athletic Association.

Five weeks into the FHSAA football season, the newest MaxPreps rankings — which this year will determine the state's at-large playoff teams and its Open Division qualifiers — tell a complicated and sometimes confusing story for the gridiron playoff race.

(Pop quiz: Which Northeast Florida team holds a 62.41 rating and a 41.2 strength of schedule?)

The future playoff brackets have yet to take shape, but the present looks messy. For now, there are cases of winless teams above undefeated teams in the same region. Playoff qualifiers and non-qualifiers separated by hundredths of a rating point. Weird implications stemming from two-team districts

and seven-team regions. Until a week ago, MaxPreps listed a high ranking for Sarasota Booker, which is not even fielding a varsity team in 2026. In other words, it's a whole lot more complicated than a decade ago.

While six weeks remain to sort it all out, here are some of the early implications for Northeast Florida.

(Pop quiz answer: The mystery team is White, and for all their success this year, the MaxPreps ranking would currently hand the Commanders a No. 5 seed and a brutal first-round trip to Choctawhatchee in Region 1-4A.)

• Could the deep District 2-5A produce four playoff teams? As it stands, that's the likely scenario, with Mandarin (second in the region), Fletcher (fifth), Ponte Vedra (seventh) and Bartram Trail (eighth) in position, Nease (ninth) barely on the outside looking in and Beachside (13th) still in the hunt. All 12 remaining games in this district should be all-out battles.
• Friday's clash between Menendez (2-2) and Wolfson (3-2) is a potential pre-playoff elimination game. District 4-3A, which also contains Palatka (1-4) and Westside (0-5), has no teams inside the region's top 10, so there's likely room for only one of them in postseason.
• Expect a frantic playoff battle in Region 1-4A. Teams now on the outside, in order, include Clay, Tallahassee Leon, Ribault, Middleburg, Escambia, Yulee and Fleming Island, which nonetheless stands only 4.08 points behind current eighth seed Tallahassee Lincoln.
• Undefeated Bradford is currently in line for only the No. 6 seed in a geographically odd Region 2-2A that stretches from coast to coast. Ahead of the Tornadoes are Orlando First Academy, Clearwater Central Catholic, Cocoa, Berkeley Prep and Tampa Catholic, most of them far-from-usual regional foes for Bradford. If the season ended now, they would begin postseason against No. 3 seed Cocoa. The Tigers' record: 0-3.

Barracudas on Open Division bubble after Venice

The perfect streak is over after 15 matches, but Beachside volleyball still staked its claim among the Sunshine State's best with a second-place performance at the Battle at the Beach in Venice.

The Barracudas (15-1) blasted past Palm Harbor University, Weeki Wachee, Westminster Christian and Gulliver Prep before losing the final match to independent superpower IMG Academy. Senior Mollie VanDeusen and freshman Nina Simanic both earned selections for the All-Tournament team.

The travels aren't finished for Beachside, which next hits the highway to Oviedo for the Sunshine State Invitational on Sept. 25 and 26. First up for the Barracudas will be the Mighty Hoppers of Georgetown Day School from Washington, D.C.

As for the playoff chase, Beachside's bid to become Northeast Florida's first FHSAA Open Division qualifier in any sport could go down to the last digs and spikes of the season. Beachside stands eighth in the Sept. 22 FHSAA ranking for Florida volleyball, 0.24 points ahead of ninth-place North Broward Prep. The top eight will qualify for the inaugural Open Division championship beginning in late October.

The other teams in Open Division qualifying spots are reigning Class 3A champion Clearwater Calvary Christian, Orangewood Christian, Gulliver Prep, Orlando First Academy, Naples First Baptist, DeLand and Tampa Plant.

Creekside makes splash at Frank Holleman meet

Ponte Vedra and Nease are the reigning state champions out of St. Johns County, but based on Saturday's Frank Holleman Invitational at Planet Swim, Creekside's girls might be in the running to join this year's championship parade.

Led by senior Emmie Lewis, who earned top spots with the 200-yard freestyle (1:49.56), a school-record 50 free (23.14) and two relays, Creekside earned a first-place 477 points in the girls standings at the 15-team meet ahead of Ponte Vedra and Nease.

The Knights' Makayla Taggart won the girls 200 individual medley (2:06.80) and a meet-record 100 breaststroke (1:04.10), Sophie Oldham broke her own meet record to capture the 100 butterfly (54.65) and Creekside's 200 free relay (Sophie Oldham, Katey Lewis, Lily Oldham and Emmie Lewis, 1:37.00) and 400 free relay (Sophie Oldham, Katey Lewis, Makayla Davies and Emmie Lewis, 3:32.92) teams also took top spots.

Creekside junior Bailey Koo also swept the boys sprints, going 21.11 in the 50 free and 46.70 in the 100 free.

Bolles, which has swept the last 35 FHSAA titles in Class 1A, did not field all of its top swimmers but still took first place in the boys team standings (448) and fourth in the girls standings (227). The Bulldogs won both diving events with Ben Goodman and Ellie Weidlich, and also won the boys 200 medley relay with David Singh, Rollins Powell, Roger Moscote and Oliver Natoli.

Fleming Island's super duo of senior William Shoesmith and junior Noah Stotler also combined for four triumphs, Shoesmith in the boys 200 IM (1:50.50) and 500 free and Stotler in the 200 free (1:37.71) and 100 fly (48.21).

Nease took second on the boys side with Luke Zardavets winning the 100 breast (54.85) and teaming with Owen Anderson, Lincoln Driesse and Matthew Shi in the 200 and 400 free relays. Ponte Vedra finished as girls runner-up with victories for Lily Ewer (52.76) in the 100 free and the quartet of Makenna Biernacki, Mikayla Costello, Mady Tulloch and Ava Pell in the 200 medley relay (1:48.02).

Also winning events were Bartram Trail's Jenna Frost in the girls 500 free (4:55.19), Fernandina Beach's Rileigh Revere in the girls 100 backstroke (59.52) and Ponte Vedra's Aaron Yang in the boys 100 back (49.83).

Meanwhile, in Altamonte Springs, Fletcher placed fourth in the boys standings with Episcopal sixth at the Lake Brantley Patriot Invitational. Episcopal also took seventh in the girls standings, boosted by victories from Blakely Hammel in the 200 free and 100 fly.

Nease's Ishee speedy in Minnesota

For Nease cross-country, the Land of 10,000 Lakes turned into the Land of 5,000-Plus Steps.

In one of the most distant recent road trips for a Jacksonville-area distance running squad, Nease's boys placed third overall at the Roy Griak Invitational in Fort Snelling, Minn.

Matthew Ishee finished 15th at 15:13.2, the fastest Northeast Florida time of 2026 to date, and Rishi Chopra came in 24th in 15:22.8 as the Panthers finished behind only Sioux Falls (S.D.) Lincoln and West Des Moines (Iowa) Dowling Catholic.

The top Panthers were among several area runners making an impact away from home. Providence senior Sean Cunningham placed 11th (15:15.70) in the Southern Showcase at John Hunt Park in Huntsville, Ala., a race that ended with a 1-2-3 for Marcelo Mantecon (14:41.60), Armando Cruz and Jack Michalak of Miami power Belen Jesuit.

At the same meet, Bartram Trail sophomore Avery Hartley ran 19:01.54 in the girls race at the Southern Showcase, helping the Bears finish 14th as a team.

With JP Strombeck third (15:46.90) and Luke Janke 16th, Fleming Island's boys took ninth at the Wingfoot XC Classic at Sam Smith Park in Cartersville, Ga., best known as the hometown of Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence. Glynn Academy's Cassidy King ran 18:03.30 for second in the girls event at the same course.

The Bolles girls raced to second place and the boys placed seventh at the Adidas XC Challenge at WakeMed Soccer Complex in Cary, N.C. Bolles sophomore Sofie Stam took eighth in the girls individual standings at 18:20.10, and Bolles' Armaan Sharma (16:01.50) and Cornerstone Classical's Jack Kline (16:02.80) led local boys in 34th and 35th place.

Stroud retires from hoops, remains softball coach

After more than 40 years and thousands of games, University Christian's Keith Stroud is stepping away from basketball head coaching — but not the sidelines altogether.

UC's athletic department announced that Stroud, who directed the girls team last year and has previously coached the boys squad as well, is retiring from basketball coaching for 2026-27. The Southside school named Gordon McKenzie as the new head coach for girls basketball.

However, Stroud remains very much with UC athletics as head coach of softball, which captured its second FHSAA Class 1A championship last May.

Stroud, who also led UC softball to the 2023 championship and has coached other sports including football during his time with the school, has more than 800 career victories on record in his tenure and reached the FHSAA final four while leading both the boys and girls teams.

Bears' Wojnar wins national wrestling event

High school wrestling season doesn't begin until November, but Bartram Trail's Sophia Wojnar is making her mark on the national stage.

The sophomore placed first in the RAF Next Gen wrestling series for the girls 106-pound class on Sept. 19 at the Watsco Center in Coral Gables, a five-event national series streamed on Fox Nation.

She is also scheduled to compete in the next edition of the series on Nov. 29 in Chicago.

In the 2025-26 season, she won District 3 and placed eighth at the FHSAA girls championship meet, winning first-team All-First Coast at 105 pounds.

Milestones, milestones, milestones

The milestones were many around high school volleyball this week on the First Coast.

• Bolles outside hitter Sophia Albaugh reached 1,000 career kills during the Florida Gem High School Volleyball Classic in Wesley Chapel. The Boston College commit joins her older sister Grace Albaugh, now at Georgetown after 1,247 kills at Bolles, in quadruple figures with the Bulldogs.
• Fletcher celebrated a trio of statistical achievements, with senior outside hitter Amelia Richter reaching 500 kills on Sept. 16 and junior setter Juliette Watson topping 500 in both digs and assists on Sept. 17.
• Wolfson setter Carter Rowell surpassed 1,000 career assists. The sophomore, who helped the Wolfpack to the Gateway Conference championship in 2025, is on course to rank among Jacksonville's all-time leaders in that category.
• Christ's Church sophomore Julia Mortensen reached 500 career assists on Sept. 17 in the Eagles' victory over St. Joseph.
• On Sept. 22, Fleming Island junior Lillie Eason whacked 21 kills in a four-set win over Middleburg to raise her career total to a school-record 729. She surpassed the mark of 714 set by her older sister, Rauly Eason, now at Harding University in Arkansas.

Around the area

Atlantic Coast outfielder/catcher Stella Lynton committed to Florida Atlantic softball. … Baldwin outside hitter Grace Gottberg committed to Florida Gateway volleyball and Lily Dotson committed to South Florida Bible College volleyball. … Bolles junior Allison Kelly committed to Virginia women's swimming. … Bolles pitcher Kline Cummings committed to Virginia baseball. … Former Christ's Church lineman Harrison Moody, now at Andover (Kan.) Central, committed to Washburn football. … Sandalwood's Sarah Wilkinson broke school girls swimming records in the girls 50 free (25.25), 100 free (55.37) and 100 fly (1:02.29). … St. Augustine's Elijah Murray, Rex Mainville, Jackson Murray and Griffin Clark swam a school-record 1:33.86 in the boys 200 free relay. … Tocoi Creek's Kaleea Zielinski broke the girls 500 free school record, and Anthony Reznitchenko broke the Toros' 50 free record and joined Logan Williams, Alex Casale and Jackson Patchan for the school's boys 200 free relay record. … West Nassau held a ring presentation ceremony Sept. 18 for the school's weightlifting champions. … Former Ponte Vedra midfielder Mark Romano won ASUN men's soccer player of the week after scoring twice for the University of North Florida in a 3-1 win over West Florida. … Former Fleming Island midfielder Taylor Tamares scored her first goal for UNF women's soccer. … The FHSAA announced that it will release girls volleyball playoff brackets at 2 p.m. Oct. 17. … Sept. 28 marks the FHSAA's first practice date for girls weightlifting.

This article originally appeared on Florida Times-Union: MaxPreps & math: Will Jacksonville's football playoff race make sense?