Jaguars pass defense defies numbers. Can it contain C.J. Stroud?

The Jacksonville Jaguars' pass defense is a paradox.

Over five games, the Jaguars rank 30th in passing yards allowed (266.2 per game), yet they rank second in scoring defense (14 points allowed per game). Opponents have thrown just four touchdown passes against Jacksonville.

That apparent contradiction will be tested Sunday against Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud.

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This season, Stroud has completed 64.3% of his passes for 1,402 yards, six touchdowns, and zero interceptions.

Meanwhile, the Jaguars' defense has six interceptions, ranked tied for second. But can Jacksonville maintain their success and turnover production against an accurate, productive quarterback

who has protected the football well?

Jaguars pass defense is better than its rankings suggest

While the Jaguars have given up the third-most yards per game through the air this season, that metric doesn't tell the entire story.

Advanced metrics show Jacksonville has been one of the league's stouter defensive units this year, regardless of how an opponent's QB has performed.

Jacksonville currently ranks eighth in defensive EPA/dropback at -0.024, sixth in defensive explosive-play rate at 7.5% and second in red-zone touchdowns allowed at 33.3%, according to NFL Pro.

Expected Points Added (EPA) measures how much a play improves or worsens a team's expected scoring position, accounting for factors such as down, distance and field position. Unlike total yardage, it helps show how effective a play actually was.

The Jaguars have been effective at limiting explosive plays this year, allowing them on just 7.5% of defensive snaps through five games. That was especially true against Philadelphia, when they allowed just one explosive play on 59 snaps, a 1.7% rate.

Through Week 5, opponents have called passing plays against Jacksonville at the third-highest rate in the NFL. The high yardage total is partly due to opportunity.

In Week 4 against the Cincinnati Bengals, QB Joe Burrow passed for 428 gross passing yards. Still, Jacksonville picked him off twice, with Cincy managing just 17 points.

In heavier sets, Jacksonville's defense has had plenty of success. The issue stems from teams spreading out their formation, particularly with 11 personnel (one tight end, one running back, three receivers) sets.

Stroud, Texans present a different challenge for Jaguars

The Texans utilize 11 personnel on 67.5% of their offensive snaps, and pass on 79% of those plays. Houston's EPA per pass on within those personnel groupings is +0.079, ranked ninth in the NFL.

On the flip side, that's exactly where Jacksonville struggles. The Jaguars have allowed an EPA/pass of +0.096, ranked 25th in the league, while they are stout against 12 (two tight ends) sets. The Jaguars give up an EPA/pass of -0.240, ranking fifth in the league.

What complicates matters further is Houston's ability to protect Stroud from those formations. The Texans have allowed pressure on just 20.6% of their dropbacks out of 11 personnel, the third-lowest rate in the league.

The numbers suggest a potentially unfavorable matchup for Jacksonville, which may need to lean on its opportunistic defense to disrupt Stroud.

The problem? Jacksonville has intercepted six passes in five games, while Stroud has thrown none in 185 attempts.

Houston also added another potential weapon this week, acquiring receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. from the Arizona Cardinals.

Harrison, who played alongside Stroud at Ohio State, has struggled this season, catching just five passes for 85 yards and a touchdown. Still, his arrival gives Stroud another option alongside Nico Collins and adds uncertainty to Jacksonville's defensive preparation.

Jaguars head coach Liam Coen said Wednesday that the Jaguars have already studied Harrison's film from Arizona and are looking at where Houston might deploy him. Although adding a new receiver into an offense in less than a week could be challenging, Coen expects Harrison to contribute.

"I would imagine that he's going to be part of their game plan, "Coen said.

Ultimately, Jacksonville has shown it can surrender yards through the air without allowing opponents to turn those gains into points. But Houston's reliance on three-receiver formations, coupled with Stroud’s ability to protect the football, presents a different challenge.

The Jaguars will need to keep limiting explosive plays and keep opponents out of the end zone, especially if the takeaways they've created over five games are harder to come back from.

If they can do that Sunday, Jacksonville's passing-yardage ranking may remain one of the NFL's more misleading statistics.

Demetrius Harvey is the Jacksonville Jaguars reporter for the Florida Times-Union. You can follow him on X (formerly Twitter) at @Demetrius82 or on BlueskyatDemetrius.

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This article originally appeared on Florida Times-Union: Jaguars pass defense defies numbers. Can it contain C.J. Stroud?