Jaguars vs. Texans predictions: Rivals clash across the ocean

It's always interesting when the Jacksonville Jaguars and Houston Texans meet up.

The AFC South rivals have played each other 48 times with the Texans holding a clear advantage, 32-16.

However, things have been more interesting over the past two years.

On Dec. 1, 2024, Texans LB Azeez Al-Shaair delivered a controversial, illegal hit to the head and neck of a sliding Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence during a game, causing a concussion. Then, in a Sept. 2025 win by the Jags, the two had to be separated in the second half, prompting Lawrence to say after the game: "We're not going to get bullied. ... It was fun to be able to punch back and stand up in those moments, where it's like, ‘All right, you want to throw that punch? We’re here.'”

Is the issue done,

or will the aggressive linebacker and the fiery QB have another exchange this time around?

Meanwhile, the Jaguars (4-1) boast the No. 1 run stopping defense in the league while the Texans (1-4) are No. 4.

Houston has the second-lowest rush yard total in the NFL while the Jaguars are middle of the pack at 13.

The Jaguars seemingly have the quarterback advantage, but Texans QB C.J. Stroud had his best game of the season in Week 5 in the team's first win of 2026.

How will it all shake out in London? Let's see what our experts think.

Last week our experts were 7-0 and are 26-9 for the season.

DEMETRIUS HARVEY

Jaguars beat writer

Texans 24, Jaguars 17

Oof. This one was tough. The Jaguars are on a hot streak dating back to last season and are absolutely motivated after last year's debacle vs. Houston. Still, the team has struggled to protect Trevor Lawrence at times already this season and I don't see why that would get better without left tackle Anton Harrison against Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter.

Season record: 4-1 (Won last week)

MIKE DiROCCO

ESPN

Jaguars 24, Texans 21

More London drama. Trevor Lawrence mounts a late drive and Cam Little kicks a 58-yard field goal at the buzzer to send the Jaguars into the bye at 5-1.

Season record: 3-2 (Won last week)

RYAN O'HALLORAN

Times-Union Sports columnist

Texans 23, Jaguars 17

Well, I can’t pick the Jaguars to win every game this year.

A bad matchup at a bad time for the Jaguars’ offense.

The Texans’ 18 sacks entered Week 6 as second-most in the NFL. The Jaguars will be without left tackle Anton Harrison (right knee) and, if he does play, left guard Emmanuel Pregnon (toe) won’t be full strength. Advantage Will Anderson, Jr., Danielle Hunter and even Jadeveon Clowney.

The Texans rank third in rush defense (78.4), which could compromise the Jaguars’ effort to establish their running game to take pressure off their re-configured offensive line.

Something in the Jaguars’ favor? Houston is expected to be without Jalen Pitre (shoulder), its excellent nickel defender. Put Parker Washington or Jakobi Meyers or even Travis Hunter over his replacement.

This game will be a fistfight and Houston stays in the AFC South race by improving to 2-4 and dropping the Jaguars to 4-2.

Season record: 4-1 (Won last week)

GARRY SMITS

Times-Union Sports reporter

Texans 17, Jaguars 13

Last week could have been the trap game for the Jaguars. It was close, miraculously. I think they’re out of miracles for the time being, especially with Houston’s track record of springing upsets on the Jags (16-8 as underdogs over the years).

I’m concerned about OT Walker Little handling DE Will Anderson, the NFL sacks leader, and Texans’ QB C.J. Stroud, who amazingly wasn’t really the problem in Houston’s 0-4 start, has old Ohio State teammate Marvin Harrison Jr., as another weapon. WR Nico Collins is healthy and he’s wrecked the Jags’ secondary for 45 receptions for 570 yards and four touchdowns in their last five meetings, averaging nine catches for 114 yards and 12.7 yards per reception.

Of course the Jaguars could be motivated by last year’s fourth-quarter collapse in Houston and the fact that the NFL robbed them of a home AFC South game. But remember that Houston got off a slow start last year (0-3) and their victory over the Jaguars ignited a nine-game winning streak. They were the only team in the NFL hotter in the second half than the Jaguars.

Season record: 3-2 (Won last week)

JUSTON LEWIS

Times-Union Sports reporter

Jaguars 24, Texans 17

Going into battle against the best defensive player in the league without your starting left tackle is reason for concern. But Jacksonville is a better team than the Texans at this point in the season.

Season record: 4-1 (Won last week)

CLAYTON FREEMAN

Times-Union Sports reporter

Texans 20, Jaguars 16

This Texans team is better than its 1-4 record and showed it last week against Tennessee. Plus, Houston's Nico Collins is a proven nightmare for Jacksonville's secondary. This one is within reach for the Jaguars, but the combination of a wounded Jacksonville line and a fierce Houston pass rush means a less-than-optimal matchup at Wembley.

Season record: 4-1 (Won last week)

TIM WALTERS

Times-Union Sports Editor

Jaguars 24, Texans 20

For the past two games, the Jaguars have moved the ball well between the 20s, but they've had some red zone issues. Liam Coen needs to stop being cute, do what's worked and score some touchdowns. If they make it that simple, they will win.

Season record: 4-1 (Won last week)

This article originally appeared on Florida Times-Union: Jaguars vs. Texans predictions: Rivals clash across the ocean