Jaguars-Houston rivalry marked by Texans' pattern of winning as underdogs

TheJacksonville Jaguarsare 4-1 and their opponent on Oct. 18 at London's Wembley Stadium is the 1-4 Houston Texans.

The Jaguars are 2.5-point favorites. The Texans' only victory is against likely the most hapless team in the NFL at the moment, the Tennessee Titans. (OK, maybe the Dolphins).

The Jaguars have won 12 of their last 13 regular season games. Houston, favored by most national experts to supplant the Jaguars as the AFC South champions, lost their first four games this season.

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The Jaguars-Texans rivalry has been dominated by Houston since it came into the league as an expansion team and beat the Jaguars 21-19 in Jacksonville on Oct. 27, 2002, one of five losses by a field goal or less that season for the 6-10 Jaguars.

The Texans have doubled the Jaguars up, leading the series 32-16. But the one hallmark of the rivalry is that the Texans seem to find a way to win as underdogs ― the scenario presenting itself at Wembley.

According to Covers.com, which tracks NFL point spreads, Houston has a 16-8 record against the Jaguars as underdogs against the spread. Straight up, it's 14-10. When the Jags are favored by six or more points, they're 6-8 straight up against the Texans and 4-10 against the spread.

The game in London will be the 25th time in 49 meetings that the Jaguars have been favored against the Texans.

Here are five especially excruciating times when the Jaguars came into a game against the Texans favored and still found a way to lose:

2023, Texans 37, Jaguars 17

The Jaguars were giving nine points at home to a team with a rookie quarterback in C.J. Stroud, who was starting his third NFL game. Stroud and the Texans jumped on the Jaguars for a 17-0 halftime lead and never looked back. Stroud was 20 of 30 for 280 yards and two touchdowns and Tank Dell caught five passes for 145 yards.

The Jags cut the lead to 17-0 in the third quarter, then yielded an 85-yard kickoff return for a touchdown ― to a fullback, Andrew Beck, who was an upback in the kickoff formation.

2022, Texans 13, Jaguars 6

The Jags were off to a 2-2 start in Doug Pederson's first year but were returning home after playing three of their first four games on the road and were giving seven points to the Texans, who were forced to start Davis Mills because of Deshaun Watson's legal troubles.

Mills didn't do much, completing 16 of 24 passes for 140 yards. But Lawrence (25 of 47, 256 yards) threw two interceptions and squandered one drive after another. Dameon Pierce rushed for 99 yards and scored the game-winning touchdown with 3:11 left.

2019, Texans 26, Jaguars 3

It was the height of Minshew Mania. Gardner Minshew, the seventh-round rookie quarterback who was forced to play on opening day when Nick Foles had his collarbone broken by Kansas City's Chris Jones, threw for 422 yards and five touchdowns in back-to-back victories over Cincinnati and the New York Jets to improve the Jaguars' record to 4-4.

The Jaguars went to London to play Houston as 1-point favorites and were motivated to avenge a 13-12 loss in Houston earlier in the season when a 2-point conversion attempt by Leonard Fournette was stopped an eyelash from the goal line.

It was never close. Minshew was sacked three times and threw two interceptions and Watson was an efficient 22 of 28 for 201 yards and Carlos Hyde ran for 160 yards.

2006, Texans 13, Jaguars 10

The Jaguars lost to Houston as an 8-point road favorite earlier in the season but bounced back by beating the Eagles 13-6 in Philadelphia and blasting Tennessee 37-7 at home to improve to 5-3. In the meantime, Houston came to Jacksonville with a 2-6 record, facing the third game of three weeks in a row on the road and coming off losses to Dallas and Tennessee.

The Jags were favored by 10.5 points. It couldn't happen, again, could it?

Yes, as the Jags fell to Houston with the immortal Sage Rosenfels playing most of the fourth quarter at quarterback to the Texans after David Carr was injured. The Texans took a 10-0 first-quarter lead, and the Jaguars offense sputtered all day, with David Garrard throwing four interceptions and getting sacked twice.

The Jaguars punted with 2:05 and three timeouts left, but another forgettable Houston hero, Samkon Gado, got 1 yard on a fourth-and-one at the Texans' 41 with 1:40 left. Had the Jags made the stop, they'd be one pass away from Josh Scobee field-goal range.

2002, Texans 21, Jaguars 19

The tone for this rivalry was set the first time the two teams played, when the Jags were favored by 11 points at home against the expansion Texans. The Jaguars won the turnover battle, had fewer penalties, had more total yards, converted more third downs and had the time of possession edge, yet lost on Kris Brown's 45-yard field goal with 2:11 left.

The Jaguars had six punts and two missed field-goal attempts by Tim Seder among their first nine possessions, with Seder missing from 35 yards on the final play of the first half that would have given the Jaguars a 12-7 lead.

After Brown's go-ahead field goal, Mark Brunell was sacked twice by Kailee Wong and a fourth-down pass on the final play intended for Bobby Shaw was batted away by Marcus Coleman. Brunell was only 16 of 34 and had a passer rating of 75.9.

This article originally appeared on Florida Times-Union: Jaguars-Houston rivalry marked by Texans' pattern of winning as underdogs