Subtropical Storm Josephine is expected to strengthen into a "powerful extratropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds by early Friday," Oct. 23.
➤ Spaghetti models for Subtropical Storm Josephine
Forecasters have been monitoring a system of low pressure spinning off the east coast in the Atlantic for days. It's been bringing gusty winds, coastal flooding and dangerous surf to much of the east coast, including Florida.
On Oct. 21, it became the 10th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, Josephine.
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While Josephine is expected to strengthen over the next 24 hours, it's forecast to weaken after that and dissipate within four days, according to the National Hurricane Center.
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Before then, though, Josephine is close enough to the coast to bring rain and windfrom southeastern Massachusetts into coastal Canada through Saturday, Oct. 24, according to AccuWeather.
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Here's the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center as of 5 a.m., Oct. 22.
Highlights on what Subtropical Storm Josephine is doing now
Special note on the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm could travel outside the cone. In 2026, the Hurricane Center will experiment with a new cone to include 90% of forecast track possibilities instead of the previous 67% forecast error.
- Location: 195 miles south-southeast of Nantucket, Massachusetts; 954 miles northeast of Jacksonville
- Maximum wind speed: 65 mph
- Direction: northeast at 13 mph
Spaghetti models for Subtropical Storm Josephine
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
➤ Track Subtropical Storm Josephine
Will Josephine impact Florida?
This will not be a great weekend along Florida's east coast, although Josephine can't be blamed, according to Megan Tollefsen, meteorologist with the National Weather Service Melbourne via phone Oct. 22.
Expect rough conditions at the beaches, with continued wave heights of five to six feet at the beaches and breaking waves of 10 to 12 feet.
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Dangerous waves, increasing winds, beach erosion, and dangerous rip rip currents, along with astronomical tides over the weekend will make conditions at the beach "pretty nasty," Tollefsen said.
The worsening beach conditions can be attributed to a high-pressure system forecast to develop and strengthen over the eastern U.S. and its interaction with a low-pressure system that could develop over the Bahamas, according to AccuWeather.
"Building seas will bring large breaking waves and dangerous rip currents to beaches from South Carolina to South Florida beginning on Friday, Oct. 23," according to AccuWeather.
Watches, warnings currently in effect in Florida
How strong is Subtropical Storm Josephine where is it going?
At 5 a.m. ET, the center of Subtropical Storm Josephine was located near latitude 38.7 North, longitude 68.3 West.
The storm is moving toward the northeast near 13 mph, and this motion, along with an increase in forward speed, is expected to continue into tonight. A gradual turn toward the east is forecast on Friday and into the weekend.
On the forecast track, Josephine should move away from the United States and remain south of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland during the next couple of days.
➤ What's the difference between subtropical storm and tropical storm?
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph, with higher gusts. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 415 miles from the center.
Some additional strengthening is forecast through the day today while Josephine begins to transition to an extratropical cyclone. Josephine is expected to become a powerful extratropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds by early Friday.
What is a subtropical storm?
"A subtropical storm typically has a large, cloud-free center of circulation, with very heavy thunderstorm activity in a band removed at least 100 miles from the center," according to the National Weather Service.
"The difference between a subtropical storm and a tropical storm is not that important as far as the winds they can generate, but tropical storms generate more rain.
"There is no such thing as asubtropical hurricane. If a subtropical storm intensifies enough to have hurricane-force winds, than it must have become fully tropical."
How are subtropical and tropical storms the same?
Subtropical and tropical storms share many similarities, including:
- Both need warm water near 80 degrees to develop.
- Both form out of low-pressure weather systems over the ocean.
- Both have well-defined centers and a closed center of circulation.
- They both bring possible similar impacts on land, including rain, high winds, storm surge, dangerous surf and potential flooding.
- Both have maximum sustained surface wind speeds of at least 39 mph.
How are subtropical and tropical storms different?
Subtropical storms:
- Have the characteristics of both a tropical storm and a non-tropical weather system.
- Generally are more disorganized than tropical storms.
- Can still be dangerous and can develop into tropical storms or, more rarely, into hurricanes.
- Have a much larger wind field and the strongest winds and thunderstorms are much farther from the center. In a tropical storm, the strongest winds are close to the center.
- Look more ragged and asymmetrical than tropical storms. There may be a lot of showers on the south and east sides but virtually nothing on the west side.
- Have cooler upper-level temperatures in their core.
How strong could Subtropical Storm Josephine get?
- As of 5 a.m.: 65 mph
- 12 hours: 70 mph
- 24 hours: 80 mph
- 36 hours: 70 mph
- 48 hours: 65 mph
- 60 hours: 60 mph
- 72 hours: 50 mph
- 96 hours: dissipated
See expected impacts from Subtropical Storm Josephine
A brief period of storm-force wind gusts of 57 mph are possible near the ocean waters southeast of Nantucket, according to the National Weather Service. Inland areas of southern New England could see gusts closer to 20-45 mph.
Beach erosion remains possible due to strong onshore winds and large waves. Conditions are expected to improveacross the broader Mid-Atlantic/Northeast coast today.
"Because Josephine is farther offshore than the powerful late-September nor’easter, coastal impacts will be less severe overall," according to AccuWeather.
Here are impacts highlighted by the National Hurricane Center:
- Wind: Gale-force winds are possible in gusts along portions of the northeastern United States coast through today.
- Coastal flooding: Minor to locally moderate coastal flooding is ongoing along portions of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast and will continue through the rest of the week around times of high tide.
- Surf: Large swells generated by Josephine are affecting much of the eastern seaboard of the United States and portions of Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
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What's next?
We will continue to update our tropical weather coverage to bring you the most current information you need to protect your home and family.
Cheryl McCloud is a journalist for the USA TODAY Network-Florida's service journalism Connect team. You can get all of Florida’s best content directly in your inbox each weekday day by signing up for the free newsletter, Florida TODAY, at https://jacksonville.com/newsletters.
This article originally appeared on Florida Times-Union: Subtropical Storm Josephine expected to strengthen. Any Florida impacts?
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