WATFORD, England — Hardly anything in the NFL is simple and straightforward. Injuries happen. Same for a rash of penalties. Ditto for playing similarly talented teams. Every week is a different kind of maze to navigate.
Except this week for the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Beat the Houston Texans at Wembley Stadium on Oct. 18 and the Jaguars will be 5-1 and have a straight line toward the AFC South title. Just as importantly, they would drop the Texans to 1-5 and douse their division hopes and likely overall postseason chances.
Lose to the Texans and the Jaguars will give Houston what any team craves in the toughest of times: Hope. Belief. Confidence. Momentum.
Over the last 10 years, as the schedule expanded from 16 to 17 games and the playoff field from six
to seven teams per conference, I looked at teams that started 5-1 or better/1-5 or worse.
The data reveals how big this game is for the Jaguars and Texans.
Forty teams started 5-1 or 6-0 and 38 made the playoffs (95%).
Forty-six teams started 1-5 or 0-6 and two — two! — made the playoffs (4.3%).
See the point about this being a straightforward game?
The Texans are a dangerous 1-4 team. They are attempting to become the first team since the 1992 Chargers to make the playoffs after starting 0-4. The Texans got in the win column last week against the Tennessee Titans. Their quarterback, C.J. Stroud, has no interceptions. And their defense’s 18 sacks are second-most in the league.
Don’t open a door for them, Jaguars. You may regret it.
Just win at Wembley, Jaguars.
1-5 record equals big trouble
In our sample size, the only two teams out of 46 to start 1-5 or worse and make the playoffs were Indianapolis in 2018 (10-6 record) and Washington in 2020 (7-9, which was enough to win the terrible NFC East). The Colts beat Houston in the wild card round and lost to Kansas City in the divisional round, and the Commanders, who were 2-7 in mid-November, lost to eventual Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay in a wild card game.
That’s the list.
Everybody else? Their general managers were putting together a head-coaching candidate list by Halloween or selling off veterans before the trade deadline. Or owners were contemplating wasting money on a search firm to assist them in sweeping front office and staff changes. Jaguars fans have seen too many of these seasons and they aren’t fun.
It is really difficult to start 1-5 or worse. The Jaguars did it three times from 2016-25 (2020-21 and 2024). Even woebegone franchises like the Raiders (once) and New York Jets (twice) didn’t make a habit of running backward out of the starting blocks. Cleveland led the way with four bad starts.
The Jaguars know they will be playing a desperate team. Last year, the Jaguars won 17-10 on a Travis Etienne 10-yard touchdown run with 1:48 remaining. They never trailed.
In the rematch, the Jaguars led 29-10 but lost 36-29. The Texans led for only the final 31 seconds and flummoxed the Jaguars’ offense (213 yards and 4 of 11 on third down).
Both these teams know what they’re getting into.
“We know that every time that you line up against this team, it’s going to be a fight,” Jaguars coach Liam Coen said of Houston. “It's going to be a brawl. That’s what’s great about football. That’s what’s great about rivalries.”
What is great about a rivalry game is winning it.
Just win at Wembley, Jaguars.
5-1 allows for big dreams
Despite leading Houston by three games in the standings, the Jaguars are only a 2 1/2-point favorite. The oddsmakers are skeptical after the Jaguars needed a rabbit-out-of-the-hat finish to beat a depleted Eagles team in Week 5 as a 7 1/2-point favorite.
The affection for Houston, which started during last year’s playoffs, has overshadowed the Jaguars’ accomplishments, never mind the fact they are 12-1 in their last 13 regular season games dating back to last year.
“We have a lot of doubters against our team, which is fair,” defensive tackle DaVon Hamilton told me before the Eagles game. “Obviously, throughout the years, we haven’t been the absolute best in the NFL, but we’re starting to change that (opinion) and the outlook people have about us.”
Going 5-1 would be another step.
Among the aforementioned 38 teams that started 5-1 or better and reached the playoffs since 2016, 10 teams made the Super Bowl. Winning the title were New England (2016), Philadelphia (2017), the Los Angeles Rams (2021) and Kansas City (2023). Losing in the The Bowl were the Rams (2018), Kansas City (2020), Philadelphia (2022), San Francisco (2023) and Kansas City (2024).
The only two teams to fail to make the playoffs were Minnesota in 2016 (finished 8-8) and Indianapolis last year (finished 8-9).
A fast start equals a cushion. A fast start creates momentum. A fast start is a precursor to playing meaningful games in January.
Want to make sure Jaguars-Texans in Houston on Dec. 20 is only important to the Jaguars? Win at Wembley. Want to make sure the Texans aren’t a possible wild-card opponent in January?
Just win at Wembley, Jaguars.
Contact O’Halloran at rohalloran@gannett.com or on X at @ryanohalloran. Listen to Ryan on 1010AM on Tuesdays (6:35 p.m. on “Into The Night"), Thursdays (1:15 on "XL Primetime") and Fridays ("First Coast Football Friday" 4-7 p.m.).
This article originally appeared on Florida Times-Union: Win at Wembley would propel Jaguars to new level, dent Texans' hopes
