There is much at stake with the Nov. 3 midterm election, including control of the House.
In Bucks County, it means the run for Pennsylvania's 1st Congressional District is a closely watched race between Republican incumbent U.S. Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick and Democratic challenger Bucks County Commissioner Bob Harvie.
So, with just three weeks until Election Day and the mail-in ballot voting in progress, how close is this highly contested Congressional race?
Fitzpatrick-Harvie race closer than previously predicted
According to the most recent Cook Political Report rating, updated Oct. 9, Fitzpatrick is favored over Harvie, but the gap has narrowed. The independent nonpartisan tracker, which previously rated the race as “likely Republican,” has shifted its rating to “leaning Republican” as of last week.
Despite
an onslaught of negative ad campaigns aimed at Harvie, Cook said Fitzpatrick’s chances could take a hit as favorability for the Republican party declines.
“Both parties continue to believe GOP Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick is probably headed back to Congress. But there’s no doubt that as the environment continues to deteriorate for Republicans, this race could be quite close,” the Cook Political Report said in its analysis.
It later adds that, for Democrats, the Fitzpatrick-Harvie Race is “worth their investment.”
“If Harvie can pull off an upset this cycle, Democrats have a better shot at holding on to this seat in the long term than they do in other reach seats.”
Efforts to flip the house continue to ramp up as the midterm elections draw near. This was evident over the weekend when Gov. Josh Shapiro rallied alongside Harvie, U.S. House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries and other elected officials in Lower Bucks on Oct. 10.
In internal poll conducted by the Global Strategy Group, Harvie has made up the deficit shown in two earlier polls and is now at an even split with Fitzpatrick at 46–46%. Undecided voters make up the remaining 8%.
According to its analysis, swing voters could be the deciding factor, saying “more prefer a generic Democrat for Congress” and “want to see the Democrats win a majority and control of the House.”
Republicans voters hold a lead over Democrats in Bucks County
According to Pennsylvania voter registration data as of Oct. 5, Republicans in the 1st Congressional District, which includes Bucks County and a tiny portion of Montgomery County, carry a 1.5-percentage point lead over Democrats in registered voters, 41.5% to 40%. The remaining 18.5% are made up of independents and other registered voters.
Bucks County voter registration numbers match those reported in the district with Republican voters making up 41.5% of the county’s 485,983 total registered voters compared to Democrats at 40%.
Bucks County Democrats gaining ground in voter registration battle
The latest registration numbers show Republicans are leading, but they also reflect a reversal in a previous yearslong trend which saw more residents switch their registration to Republican than Democrat.
Since the start of 2026, countywide Democratic year-over-year registration changes have outpaced Republican changes for the first time since the 2020 election, according to Pennsylvania voter registration data. As of Oct. 5, just over 3,200 Bucks County voters changed their registration to Democrat this year, while only 2,122 changed to Republican.
Democrats lead Republicans in latest polls
Democrats carry an 8.3-percentage point lead over Republicans, 50.4% to 42.1%, according to RealClearPolitics’s generic congressional vote average as of Oct. 11.
Further bolstering their chances, a recent The Economist/YouGov poll showed Democratic congressional candidates are more favored by independent voters by nearly a two-to-one ratio with 46% saying they'll vote for Democratic candidates and 26% for Republican candidates.
Who will control Congress after the 2026 midterm elections?
Democrats are widely favored to win control of the House, where Republicans hold only a narrow majority and Democrats need relatively few seat pickups to reclaim the chamber, making the 1st Congressional District seat a critical race on the national level.
When is the 2026 midterm election?
The 2026 midterm election will be held on Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026. Voters will decide control of the House and Senate while also casting ballots in gubernatorial and other state and local races across the country.
Mail-in voting is underway in Bucks County
Bucks County’s seven in-person “on-demand” mail-in ballot locations are currently open, allowing allow voters to apply in person for a mail-in or absentee ballot and receive their ballot during the visit if approved.
As of Oct. 5, 112 mail-in ballots had been returned so far in Bucks County, according to the Board of Elections’ voter statistics dashboard, which showed nearly 84,000 had been sent out to registered voters, comprised of 60.1% Democrats, 28.3% Republicans and 10.9% independents and other registered voters.
In addition to sending a ballot by mail or visiting one of the “on-demand” locations, mail-in ballots can be returned using one of the additional drop boxes located throughout the county.
Reporter Michele Haddon covers local news, small business, food and drink, economic revitalization, art and culture for The Intelligencer and Bucks County Courier Times at PhillyBurbs.com. Please consider supporting local journalism with a subscription.
Bucks County Courier Times reporter Ben Shapiro and USA TODAY Network reporter Maria Francis contributed to this report.
This article originally appeared on Bucks County Courier Times: Election Day is 3 weeks away. How close is the Fitzpatrick-Harvie race
