This week has seen the continued completion of the primary map, further shaping November'smidterm election battleground.
This past Tuesday, Minnesota's Senate race officially came into focus after Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan won the Democratic primary and former broadcaster Michele Tafoya secured the Republican nomination. Their showdown for the open seat is now one of the highest-profile Senate contests of the fall campaign.
In South Carolina, Republicans failed to nominate a Senate candidate outright, sending the race to an Aug. 25 runoff and extending uncertainty in a contest that could help determine the fight for Senate control.
After this round of primaries Tuesday, more of November's biggest House and Senate matchups are finally set, giving
voters and election forecasters a clearer picture of which party could control Congress in 2027.
While Election Day remains nearly three months away, analysts increasingly agree that both chambers of Congress remain highly competitive. Here's what to know about who's winning the 2026 midterms right now.
Who controls Congress right now?
Republicans currently hold the Senate majority and are defending that advantage in the 2026 elections. Democrats are targeting several Republican-held seats while also trying to protect vulnerable incumbents and open-seat opportunities.
Control of the House could once again be decided by a handful of competitive districts, with many forecasts suggesting another narrowly divided Congress is possible after Election Day.
Who is favored to win the Senate right now?
If the election were held today, Republicans would likely keep Senate control.
The reason is simple: Democrats must gain multiple seats to reclaim the majority, and Republicans enter the fall with an existing advantage.
However, the latest battleground map suggests Democrats still have realistic pickup opportunities in several states. That is why analysts continue to rate the fight for Senate control among the most competitive storylines of the 2026 election cycle.
Which Senate races could decide control?
A small group of Senate races is expected to determine which party controls the chamber.
Among the most closely watched contests:
- North Carolina: Democrat Roy Cooper faces Republican Michael Whatley in one of the nation's premier Senate battlegrounds and a race that could prove pivotal to Senate control.
- Ohio: Former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is seeking a return to Washington against Republican Jon Husted in another high-stakes contest with major implications for the balance of power.
- Georgia: Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff is defending his seat against Republican Mike Collins in a race expected to draw heavy spending and national attention.
- Texas: Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton will face Democratic state Rep. James Talarico in one of the cycle's most closely watched and potentially competitive matchups.
- Minnesota: Democrat Peggy Flanagan and Republican Michele Tafoya will compete for the open seat being vacated by Sen. Tina Smith, creating another key battleground to watch heading into November.
Who is favored to win the House right now?
The House remains far less predictable.
Many competitive districts have now finalized their general-election matchups, but forecasts continue to indicate that a small number of swing districts could ultimately determine which party controls the chamber.
With margins likely to remain narrow, even a handful of seat changes could alter the balance of power in Washington.
Who will control Congress in 2027?
That's still the biggest unanswered question of the 2026 election season.
Republicans currently have the advantage because they already control the Senate, but Democrats remain within striking distance in several crucial battleground races. At the same time, the House appears poised for another razor-thin fight that could come down to just a few districts nationwide.
The clearest takeaway after this week's primaries is that the map is becoming more defined, but the outcome is far from settled.
For voters searching for who's winning the midterms right now, the answer remains the same:
Republicans likely hold a slight edge, but control of Congress is still very much up for grabs.
Who will win the 2026 midterm elections? Polls, predictions and odds
According to the latest RealClearPolling' generic Congressional voting polls, 48.6% said they'd vote Democrat, 41.5% said they'd vote Republican.
In the latest generic congressional voting poll by Economist/YouGov, 40% said if elections for Congress were being held today, they'd vote for the Democratic candidate compared to 32% that said Republican. A whopping 29% said other, not sure or that they would not vote at all.
In Polymarket betting odds on who will win the 2026 midterms, the odds are now favoring a Democratic Party win in both the Senate and the House.
- 88% favor a Democratic Party win for the House in midterms 2026
- 53% favor a Democratic Party win for the Senate in midterms 2026
- 50% favor a Democratic sweep of the House and Senate in midterms 2026
- 12% favor a Republican sweep of the House and Senate in midterms 2026
The Kalshi marketpredictions on midterm election favor a Democratic sweep with 47% over a split congress with 39% odds.
- 85% favor a Democratic Party win for the House in midterms 2026
- 50% tie between favor a Republican Party win for the Senate in the midterms 2026
Note: Polls and odds are constantly changing. These numbers reflect polling and odds as of noon Wednesday, August 12, 2026.
When are the midterms? 2026 Midterm election date
The midterm elections are Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026.
When is my primary election date? 2026 Primary elections dates by state
Primary elections are on different dates for most states, having started March 3rd and running through Sept. 15. Here are the primary elections dates by state:
- Alabama May 19
- Alaska August 18
- Arizona July 21
- Arkansas March 3
- California June 2
- Colorado June 30
- Connecticut August 11
- Delaware September 15
- District of Columbia June 16
- Florida August 18
- Georgia May 19
- Guam August 1
- Hawaii August 8
- Idaho May 19
- Illinois March 17
- Indiana May 5
- Iowa June 2
- Kansas August 4
- Kentucky May 19
- Louisiana May 16
- Maine June 9
- Maryland June 23
- Massachusetts September 1
- Michigan August 4
- Minnesota August 11
- Mississippi March 10
- Missouri August 4
- Montana June 2
- Nebraska May 12
- Nevada June 9
- New Hampshire September 8
- New Jersey June 2
- New Mexico June 2
- New York June 23
- North Carolina March 3
- North Dakota June 9
- Ohio May 5
- Oklahoma June 16
- Oregon May 19
- Pennsylvania May 19
- Rhode Island September 8
- South Carolina June 9
- South Dakota June 2
- Tennessee August 6
- Texas March 3
- Utah June 23
- Vermont August 11
- Virgin Islands August 1
- Virginia August 4
- Washington August 4
- West Virginia May 12
- Wisconsin August 11
- Wyoming August 18
Maria Francis is a Pennsylvania-based journalist covering trending and breaking topics across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast regions for USA Today Network. Reach her at mfrancis@usatodayco.com.
This article originally appeared on Bucks County Courier Times: Who will control Congress after 2026 midterm election? Latest polls
