Two independent candidates for Tennessee governor in the 2026 election have put the Democratic and Republican nominees on notice. Could the independents shake up the race?
A Democrat hasn't won statewide in Tennessee since former Gov. Phil Bredesen's 2006 reelection, and independent candidates rarely crack even a few percentage points of the statewide vote. But at least one longtime political observer says the momentum for independents is different this year.
“There’s no doubt that in terms of the support they’re getting, the resources they’re putting into it, and the attention they’re drawing from other candidates and the public: This is a different election with the impact of these two,” Bill Lyons, the associate director for community outreach
at the Institute for American Civics at the University of Tennessee, told USA TODAY Network-Tennessee.
The Democratic and Republican nominees are paying attention, too: Republican Sen. Marsha Blackburn and Democrat Jerri Green each have targeted the independent most aligned with their own beliefs. Normally, nominees for the main parties don't give independents any airtime.
Who are the independent candidates for governor? David Hatley and Lauren Pinkston are both running as independents.
How have Blackburn and Green targeted independents? Green privately asked Pinkston to drop out of the race, I exclusively reported, and Green then publicly re-issued her call. Blackburn's campaign attacked Hatley's criminal record on a website it paid for and in a press release to media.
How could independents spoil the race? People's votes will be split among four candidates, which means a candidate can win with a smaller share of votes than in a two-person race. A winner doesn't need a majority. They just need to get more votes than everyone else.
Remember Ross Perot? Back in 1992, Ross Perot, a successful businessman like Hatley, ran as an independent. He didn't win a single state in the electoral college, but he captured 19% of the popular vote (which is how governors are elected). Former Republican President George H.W. Bush got 37% of the popular vote and former Democratic President Bill Clinton won his first election that year with 43% of the popular vote.
Bush only lost to Clinton by four percentage points, which could easily represent voters who supported Perot. Clinton got Democrats' votes, and Bush and Perot split Republicans.
Perot united socially conservative, blue-collar voters with fiscally conservative but socially moderate voters "who wanted to reduce the outsize power that lobbyists and special interest groups exert over policy decisions," TIME Magazine wrote in Perot's obituary in 2019.
Sound familiar? Both Hatley and Pinkston have argued against special interests and the two-party system having too much influence. It wouldn't be too much of a stretch to predict Hatley might take votes from Blackburn and Pinkston might take votes from Green.
Look back at the primary: Blackburn beat Tennessee Rep. Monty Fritts and U.S. Rep. John Rose in the GOP primary, but she only got 44% of the vote. That means more Republicans didn't vote for her than did. Green beat Carnita Atwater, Kevin Lee McCants, Tim Cyr and Adam Kurtz with 69% of the vote, which is a majority and then some.
We can't say for sure whether Republicans who didn't vote for Blackburn will stick with their party or pick an alternative, but Hatley's "businessman outsider" and anti-establishment persona aligns with the Republicans Blackburn beat. If Republicans who didn't vote for Blackburn choose Hatley, that could clear a path for Green to get the most votes.
Hatley is running with a notable endorsement: Hatley is endorsed by Middle Tennessee Sen. Janice Bowling, a Republican.
"A lot of the people in my district have wanted me to meet David, I'm very pleased I got to meet him and his wife and to talk with them," Bowling said in an ad for Hatley. "I'm pleased to say I now know who I'm voting for: I'm voting for David for governor of Tennessee."
It's a drop in the bucket compared to the dozens of endorsements by political figures that Blackburn has amassed, but it's noteworthy from a member of Blackburn's party and her part of the state.
And Green's campaign said so itself: Pinkston could take votes from Green. Green's campaign manager, Alex Hensley, told me Democrats are in striking distance of Blackburn. The number of votes Pinkston is likely to win is small but significant if the race is tight, she said.
"In a contest this tight, vote-splitting only serves to hand the election to a candidate bought by corporations and billionaires and who doesn’t answer to everyday Tennesseans," Hensley said. "With just six weeks left, uniting behind Jerri Green is the only way to protect the future of our state."
Pinkston says Green thinks she's a threat: "We appreciate the Green campaign’s admission that this campaign is impacting the race for governor," Pinkston told me exclusively in a statement. "If we weren’t making a difference, there would be no need for us to withdraw."
Want to weigh in? Early voting runs Oct. 14-29 and Election Day is Nov. 3. It's too late to register if you haven't already done so, but you can request an absentee ballot until Oct. 24. To learn more about the candidates, head to knoxnews.com for our voter's guide!
Three governor candidates set participate in an independent debate
The Tennessee Press Association is hosting the only independent debate for governor candidates this year, and Green, Hatley and Pinkston will participate.
When's the debate? 8 p.m. Oct. 27
How can I watch? The debate will be livestreamed on knoxnews.com and by the Tennessee Press Association.
Tennessee Republicans are internally fighting a different battle
As Republican lawmakers are either running to keep their jobs or supporting their preferred candidate, another election is happening internally, and the results could benefit Knox County.
Tennessee Lt. Gov. and Senate Speaker Randy McNally, an Oak Ridge Republican, isn't going back to Nashville this year. That means one of the most powerful roles in the state is up for grabs.
In Tennessee, the lieutenant governor/Senate speaker is elected by Senate Republicans, not the state at large. Two senators are vying for the role: Senate Majority Leader Jack Johnson of Franklin and Sen. Paul Bailey of Sparta.
Republican Sen. Dawn White of Murfreesboro is running unopposed to replace Johnson as majority leader.
One of Knoxville's senators, Becky Duncan Massey, is running for caucus chair against incumbent Sen. Ken Yager of Kingston and Sen. Bill Powers of Clarksville.
What does the caucus chair do? The caucus chair manages the party's political and communications strategies and presides over party meetings.
Why does Massey want to be chair? "With my skill set, with what I did (as Sertoma Center executive director), I feel like I've got the strongest skill set of the three of us," she said. "I'm the only one that's written a plan for the type of things I'd like to see the caucus do."
How would Massey being chair help Knox County? Massey already has a leadership role as the chair of the Senate TransportationCommittee. She's been a strong advocate for Knox County and East Tennessee as transportation chair, but being caucus chair would give her an even stronger seat at the table with the executive branch, she said.
"I would stay at that committee," Massey said. "I would be on the leadership ... the governor has a breakfast with House and Senate leadership once a week during session. While I don't like to play the 'female' card, it would be neat (to serve with the first female governor). There's a part of me that I think that would be kind of fun."
Could Republicans in Congress block Democratic members?
Knoxville Congressman Tim Burchett told the New York Post Oct. 3 he was planning to block the swearing-in of Darializa Avila Chevalier, the Democratic nominee to represent upper Manhattan and the Bronx, if she's elected. Avila Chevalier is a member of the NYC Democratic Socialists of America, and Burchett told the New York Post she shouldn't be sworn in because of a comment she made about using the American flag as a napkin.
“You take an oath to uphold the Constitution, and and you’re pretty much disavowing it right there. I just think we’ve lost our compass,” Burchett said in an interview.
Burchett told The New York Post he "intends to make the unusual parliamentary move when the new Congress convenes in January - using a simple majority to prevent newly elected lawmakers from being seated before they take the oath of office."
Can Burchett do that? Burchett was likely referring to a United States Supreme Court precedent from 1969that allows a member to object when the Speaker is preparing to administer the oath of office to a member-elect. If that happens, the House can vote on a resolution to:
- Seat the member immediately
- Delay the oath temporarily while an investigation occurs
- Refer the matter to the House Administration Committee (on which Burchett does not sit)
- Refuse to seat the member if the House decides they don't meet constitutional requirements or were not duly elected
One problem for Burchett: The SCOTUS ruling says the House can only vote not to seat someone if they don't meet the Constitution's three requirements: Age (25), citizenship (seven years) and inhabitancy in the state they represent.
Burchett's disagreement with Avila Chevalier's conduct is not a valid reason according to the SCOTUS ruling.
Burchett's Democratic opponent, Michaela Barnett, pointed out the legal complications with Burchett's plan in a statement:
"A prospective member of Congress should not disrespect our flag," she said Oct. 6 "But that does not justify the willful disregard of our nation’s Constitution. Rep. Burchett swore an oath – we deserve a representative who respects our flag and upholds the Constitution."
What you can do: If you want to support Barnett or Burchett, head to the polls to vote early Oct. 14-29 or on Election Day Nov. 3!
Knoxville City Council will weigh in on Kerbela apartments
The Knoxville City Council will hear an effort from the South Waterfront Advisory and Advocacy Groupto overturn the Knoxville-Knox County Planning Commission's approval of a large apartment building in South Knoxville near Sevier Avenue.
The Kerbela apartments need a 90% increase to the maximum lot size allowed by the South Knoxville code, and opponents argue the developer should split up the apartments into multiple buildings to allow for better pedestrian access along the waterfront.
If the advisory group is successful, the developer would have to restart the project's approval process.
When's the meeting? The city council will meet at 6 p.m. Oct. 13 in the main assembly room of the City-County Building, 400 Main St.
Want to weigh in? You can sign up to speak at public forum by contacting the city recorder's office at CityRecorder@KnoxvilleTN.gov or 865-215-2075. You must sign up by 4 p.m. Oct. 12. Public comment is not permitted on appeals brought by a clearly identified opposing party, however - in the case of the Kerbela apartments project, by the South Waterfront Advisory and Advocacy Group.
Study up: You can find the council's agenda on the city council website. The appeal documents can be found on the Sept. 29 agenda and project details on the planning commission website.
You can give feedback about this Knoxville property
The Knoxville Community Development Corporation wants feedback about what to do with the old public safety building site on Hill Avenue in East Knoxville.
The city and KCDC initially sought input at a block party Sept. 12.
The site previously was supposed to house a new science museum, but philanthropist Jim Clayton withdrew his financial support for the museum. Now, the land is a blank canvas.
When can you weigh in? 5-7 p.m. Oct. 12 at Cal Johnson Recreation Center, 507 S. Hall of Fame Drive.
Five things you may have missed
Here's five news highlights you may have missed from last week:
I shared seven storylines to watch in the midterm elections
Anthony Nicotera exclusively reported a Knoxville teen convicted in USPS carjacking was accused in $20K murder-for-hire
Evan Mealins investigated whether Tennessee followed execution advice is sought four years ago
Tyler Whetstone wrote about what could happens next for Christa Pike now that she's awake
I shared one expert's opinion of why President Donald Trump was coming back to Tennessee
Allie Feinberg is the politics reporter for Knox News. Email: allie.feinberg@knoxnews.com; Reddit: u/KnoxNewsAllie
This article originally appeared on Knoxville News Sentinel: Could independent governor candidates spoil the race? History says maybe
