After correctly predicting last week's win over Georgia Tech, Knox News simulated No. 14 Tennessee's upcoming matchupagainst Kennesaw State 100 times to preview what could happen Sept. 19 when the Vols return to Neyland Stadium.
The game represents the Vols' final tuneup before the other UT comes to town.
Our EA Sports College Football 27 simulations got off to a strong start last week. Tennessee entered its game at Georgia Tech as a 12.5-point favorite, while our 100 simulations predicted a 20-point Vols victory. Tennessee finished closer to our projection, beating the Yellow Jackets 45-24 for a 21-point win.
Knox News reporter Keenan Thomas and editor Ryan Wiluszfired up their PS5s again this week and loaded the game, which also is available
on PC and XBOX Series X|S. To get as close as possible to Saturday's forecast and game conditions, we set the weather to clear skies and the kickoff to 8 p.m. (7:45 p.m. was not an option.)
Tennessee was set to prefer starting on offense in 50 simulations and on defense in the other 50.
Here's what happened.
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Tennessee vs. Kennesaw State: EA Sports College Football 27 results
It feels like '98 for Tennessee. The Vols beat the Owls in all but two simulations, finishing 98-2 and winning by an average margin of 30 points, equivalent to roughly a -30 spread.
Tennessee won by at least 21 points in 72 simulations, and only six games were decided by a single possession. The Vols ended up scoring at least 40 points on 63 occasions, while the Owls couldn't manage more than two touchdowns in 59 simulations.
Tennessee shut out Kennesaw State three times, including a dominant 44-0 victory in Game 86.
Here are the predictions based on averages from 100 simulations, rounded to the nearest whole number:
- Predicted score: Tennessee 44, Kennesaw State 14
- Tennessee offense: 233 rushing | 254 passing | 487 total offense (578 total yards, with special teams)
- Kennesaw State offense: 128 rushing | 171 passing | 299 total offense (404 total yards, with special teams)
- Turnovers: Kennesaw State committed 152 turnovers in 100 simulations to Tennessee's 86 (Vols +66)
Knox News sports columnist John Adams predicts a similar outcome with a 51-17 Tennessee victory. Our simulations predicted that exact score in Game 18, which Tennessee finished with 318 yards on the ground and 312 yards through the air while holding Kennesaw State to 222 rushing yards and 127 passing yards.
The Vols are 35.5-point favorites and have a 97.8% chance of winning, according to ESPN.
Here are some more highlights from our latest round of simulations:
- Biggest Tennessee win: 80-13 (67-point margin)
- Biggest Kennesaw State win: 30-24 and 20-14 (six-point margin)
- Highest scoring game: 80-13, Tennessee (93 total points)
- Lowest-scoring game: 17-0, Tennessee (17 total points)
- Keenan's thing to watch: The game predicts Tennessee will trounce Kennesaw State, and DeSean Bishop broke Tennessee's single-game rushing record for the second week in a row with 330 yards in Game 41. However, the Vols must cross the 30-point threshold, otherwise it could spell disaster. Tennessee scored fewer than 30 points just six times, but both Vols losses came in those games.
- Ryan's thing to watch: One noticeable trend from my set of 50 simulations was Tennessee's ability to spread the workload in the run game. Six simulations featured multiple 100-yard rushers for the Vols, including one in which Faizon Brandon and DeSean Bishop each rushed for more than 150 yards.
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Keenan Thomas is the higher education reporter for the Knox News Business Growth & Development team, led by Business Growth & Development Editor Ryan Wilusz. Send them an email: keenan.thomas@knoxnews.com | ryan.wilusz@knoxnews.com
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This article originally appeared on Knoxville News Sentinel: 100 Tennessee football simulations predict clipped wings for Kennesaw State
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