Knox News is putting EA Sports College Football 27 to the test again, running 100 simulations of No. 14 Tennessee's Oct. 10 matchup against Arkansas after the video game correctly predicted a decisive SEC win by the Vols over Auburn last week.
The Volunteers (4-1, 1-1 SEC) are off to a strong start as they reach the midpoint of the regular season, and the simulations have correctly predicted Tennessee's outcome in every game we were able to model, including the home loss to Texas. That makes Knox News undefeated at 4-0 using the video game.
Unlike EA Sports, Furman is not "in the game," meaning we couldn't simulate the season opener. But unless the Paladins were capable of pulling off a PlayStation miracle, it's safe to assume we'd be 5-for-5.
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With the Vols heading west to face the Razorbacks (2-3, 0-2 SEC), reporter Keenan Thomas and editor Ryan Wilusz fired up the game and set the weather to clear skies with a 3:30 p.m. kickoff to get as close as possible to the game conditions for Saturday's matchup at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium (4:15 p.m. ET, SEC Network).
Tennessee was set to prefer starting on offense in 50 simulations and defense in the other 50, but the coin toss still decided who kicked to start the game.
Here's what happened.
Tennessee vs. Arkansas: EA Sports College Football 27 results
Can you smell it? It smells like roasted hog.
Tennessee dominated the simulations, winning 86 of 100 matchups against Arkansas. The Vols won by an average of 15 points, closely matching the real-world betting spread, while the teams combined for an average of 65 points per game.
- Simulation odds: Tennessee -15 | O/U 65
- Actual odds (as of Oct. 7): Tennessee -13.5 | O/U 51
Fewer than a quarter of the simulations were decided by a touchdown or less, including three one-point games. Tennessee won 17 of those close contests, including both games that went to overtime.
Arkansas eclipsed the 300-yard passing mark in 33 simulations, compared with 27 for Tennessee, but the Volunteers consistently held the edge on the ground.
Here's our prediction based on averages from 100 simulations:
- Predicted score: Tennessee 40, Arkansas 25
- Tennessee offense: 193 rushing | 264 passing | 457 total offense (including special teams: 543 yards)
- Arkansas offense: 132 rushing | 263 passing | 395 total offense (including special teams: 516 yards)
- Turnovers: Tennessee committed 68 turnovers to Arkansas' 229 (Tennessee +161)
Knox News sports columnist John Adams expects a lower-scoring game but a more comfortable Vols victory, predicting Tennessee to beat Arkansas 27-10. The ESPN Matchup Predictor gives Tennessee an 87% chance of victory, nearly identical to the 86% win rate the Vols posted across 100 Knox News simulations.
More highlights from our latest round of simulations:
- Biggest Tennessee win: 76-9 (67-point margin)
- Biggest Arkansas win: 49-28 (21-point margin)
- Highest scoring game: 56-53, Tennessee (109 total points)
- Lowest-scoring game: 21-10, Tennessee (31 total points)
Keenan's thing to watch: We ran 20 simulations with Faizon Brandon as the starting quarterback before Knox News learned from a source close to the program that George MacIntyre would get the start. The two quarterbacks produced similar numbers, though it's worth noting the game doesn't account for Brandon's shoulder injury. Both had games with 300-plus passing yards, including a 450-yard performance from MacIntyre. If the simulations are right, Saturday could be a confidence booster for MacIntyre as he settles into the starting role.
Ryan's thing to watch: Turnovers were a recurring theme in the simulations, with Arkansas consistently giving the ball away more often than Tennessee. The Razorbacks committed at least four turnovers in 19 simulations, while the Vols finished with a turnover margin of plus-3 or better in 30 games. Using a rough value of seven points per extra possession, Tennessee's turnover advantage matched or exceeded its margin of victory in 25 of 100 simulations. That's not to say every takeaway led directly to points, but it suggests the extra possessions often played a significant role in the outcome.
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Keenan Thomas is the higher education reporter for the Knox News Business Growth & Development team, led by Business Growth & Development Editor Ryan Wilusz. You can reach them by email: keenan.thomas@knoxnews.com | ryan.wilusz@knoxnews.com
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This article originally appeared on Knoxville News Sentinel: 100 simulations of Tennessee football vs. Arkansas predict roasted hog
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