Texas’ No. 1 ranking is all about one quarter of football. The Longhorns defeated then-No. 1 Ohio State with a fourth-quarter stampede that overcame a 23-3 deficit on Sept. 12 in Austin.
Nothing else on its September resume suggests it’s the best team in the country. So what if it beat Texas State and UTSA by a combined score of 89-13. No. 13 Tennessee could have done as much.
In fact, the Vols have done less. They’re 3-0 heading into their noon showdown with Texas on Sept. 26, but what semi-competent Power 4 program wouldn’t be 3-0 against softies like Furman, Georgia Tech and Kennesaw State.
While you might be uncertain whether Texas is worthy of its ranking, Tennessee presents a greater mystery. But you do know this much about the Vols: They
have had little success recently against nationally ranked teams.
UT 20, UT 13: How can I go wrong with that pick?
Sorry. An event as epic as this demands seriousness. Let’s try again.
Texas 20, Tennessee 13: The Vols played four nationally ranked teams last season and lost every time. That extended their losing streak against ranked teams to six.
A Tennessee pessimist would say: “Brace yourself.” A Tennessee optimist would say: “We’re due.”
Ole Miss 37, Florida 24: The Rebels could be set up for failure after an emotional victory over LSU. But would you bet on Trinidad Chambliss failing?
Georgia 31, Oklahoma 14: Brent Venables assured fans that the Sooners wouldn’t suffer a hangover from their loss to Michigan. “Our complete focus is now on New Mexico,” he declared.
By giving the Lobos their undivided attention, the Sooners surged to a 14-6 victory. Imagine what catastrophe might have unfolded if they hadn’t been so focused.
Auburn 34, Vanderbilt 24: The Tigers played complementary football against Florida. I don’t mean that as a compliment.
Auburn gave up seven sacks in a 44-39 loss. That helped set up the Gators offense for more playing time. Time of possession: Florida, 39 minutes; Auburn, 21.
Mississippi State 34, Missouri 31: How good is Bulldogs sophomore dual-threat quarterback Kamario Taylor?
Answer: So good that he’s being projected as the next great Miami quarterback.
SEC defensive coordinators surely wish he had already abandoned the Bulldogs for the transfer portal. He has thrown for 11 touchdowns and rushed for 178 yards in Mississippi State’s 3-0 start.
LSU 34, Texas A&M 24: Ole Miss got payback against LSU and former coach Lane Kiffin on Sept. 19. Maybe, LSU can do the same against Texas A&M in Tiger Stadium a week later.
The Aggies scored 35 points in the second half on the way to a 49-25 victory last season in Baton Rouge. LSU was so embarrassed by the outcome it was willing to pay coach Brian Kelly $53 million to vacate the premises.
Alabama 34, South Carolina 22: If you were unfamiliar with Gamecocks history, you would have assumed a 3-0 start when they kicked off as a favorite at home against Mississippi State.
Historians knew better. After blowing a 16-point lead against the Bulldogs, South Carolina has gone 14 consecutive seasons without starting 3-0.
More history: South Carolina is 1-9 against the Tide in Tuscaloosa and has been shut out four times.
Arkansas 31, Tulsa 23: The lure of an SEC head-coaching job is hard to resist. But my guess is Memphis football has never looked better to former Tigers coach Ryan Silverfield after the Razorbacks’ back-to-back losses to Utah and Georgia by a combined count of 88-27.
Three games into his Arkansas career, he probably has figured out: It’s one thing to coach in the SEC. It’s quite another thing to coach the worst program in the SEC.
Kentucky 40, South Alabama 20: If you leaped onto the Wildcats’ bandwagon after their upset of Texas A&M, be forewarned: They have a history of not handling success well.
For example, in 2024, they upset sixth-ranked Ole Miss. The next week, they lost to Vanderbilt and were off and stumbling on a four-game losing streak.
But since coach Will Stein is in his first season, let’s give him the benefit of the doubt. But bet at your own risk.
Record: 38-5 (.883), 28-15 (.651) against the spread.
John Adams is a senior columnist. He may be reached at 865-342-6284 or john.adams@knoxnews.com.
This article originally appeared on Knoxville News Sentinel: You can't go wrong picking UT for Tennessee vs Texas, other SEC picks tougher | Adams
