Just like No. 13 Tennessee, our EA Sports College Football 27 simulations are undefeated this season heading into the Vols' SEC opener at Neyland Stadium against No. 1 Texas.
To kick off conference play, Knox News simulated the Sept. 27 showdown to predict who will walk away Saturday with the "real UT" crown.
Tennessee entered last week’s game against Kennesaw State as 35.5-point favorites, while our 100 simulations predicted a 30-point victory. The Vols came close to splitting the difference, beating the Owls 42-9 for a 33-point win.
To get as close as possible to the forecast and game conditions for Tennessee vs. Texas at Neyland Stadium, reporter Keenan Thomas and editor Ryan Wilusz fired up EA Sports College Football 27 and set the weather
to partly cloudy skies with a noon kickoff. They also set the crowd pattern to "Checker Neyland."
Tennessee was set to prefer starting on offense in 50 simulations and defense in the other 50.
Here's what happened.
Tennessee vs. Texas: EA Sports College Football 27 results
Get ready for a Big Orange battle. Tennessee and Texas were nearly even across 100 simulations, which produced an average combined score of 72 points. The Longhorns held a slight edge, winning by an average margin of 3 points.
All points and stats are rounded to the nearest whole number.
- Simulation odds: Texas -3 | O/U 72
- Actual odds: Texas -4.5 | O/U 56
Texas won 54 out of 100 simulations, though Tennessee put up a solid fight. Forty-two games were decided by a single possession, and three came down to a single point.
Four games were decided in overtime, with Tennessee using its home field advantage to take the win each time, and only 11 games featured either team scoring 20 points or fewer.
Here are the predictions based on averages from 100 simulations:
- Predicted score: Texas 37, Tennessee 34
- Tennessee offense: 171 rushing | 283 passing | 454 total offense (562 total yards, with special teams)
- Texas offense: 156 rushing | 311 passing | 467 total offense (586 total yards, with special teams)
- Turnovers: Tennessee committed 137 turnovers in 100 simulations to Texas’ 104 (Longhorns +33)
Knox News sports columnist John Adams expects a lower scoring game but a similarly slim margin of victory, predicting Texas to defeat Tennessee 20-13. The Longhorns have a 70% chance of winning, according to ESPN.
Here are some more highlights from our latest round of simulations:
- Biggest Tennessee win: 59-7 (52-point margin)
- Biggest Texas win: 62-17 (45-point margin)
- Highest scoring game: 67-43 Tennessee (110 points) and 56-54 Tennessee in OT (110 points)
- Lowest-scoring game: 19-13, Texas (32 total points)
Keenan's thing to watch: Texas quarterback Arch Manning was a beast throughout the simulations, consistently throwing for more than 300 yards. If Tennessee’s defense can stop him – or if the offense can match his output – then the Vols could have a chance at holding the Longhorns at bay.
Ryan's thing to watch: Fans should expect both teams to air it out Saturday. Texas had 300+ passing yards in 58 games, compared to 34 games for Tennessee. But slowing Arch Manning wasn't Tennessee's only path to victory. In fact, the team with fewer passing yards won 55 out of 100 games. The Texas quarterback threw for 543 yards in Game 57, for example, but Faizon Brandon earned a Vols win with a more efficient performance that matched Manning's four touchdown passes with just 278 yards in the air.
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Keenan Thomas is the higher education reporter for the Knox News Business Growth & Development team, led by Business Growth & Development Editor Ryan Wilusz. Send them an email: keenan.thomas@knoxnews.com | ryan.wilusz@knoxnews.com
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This article originally appeared on Knoxville News Sentinel: 100 Tennessee football simulations vs. Texas predict a Neyland nailbiter
