The cigar smoke has cleared, and Knox News has again fired up EA Sports College Football 27 to predict No. 11 Tennessee (6-1, 3-1 SEC) vs. unranked South Carolina (3-3, 1-3 SEC) by running 100 simulations of the Oct. 24 matchup in Columbia.
The Volunteers are riding the high of giving Alabama its third consecutive loss at Neyland Stadium in a game that included the highest scientifically verified college-football crowd-noise reading. Our simulations have correctly predicted Tennessee's outcome in every game we were able to model, including the Vols’ only loss of the season to Texas.
Unlike EA Sports, Furman is not "in the game," meaning we couldn't simulate the season opener. But unless the Paladins were capable of pulling off a PlayStation miracle,
it's safe to assume the game wouldn't have spoiled our streak.
Reporter Keenan Thomas and editor Ryan Wilusz set the simulations for the forecasted clear skies and 3:30 p.m. kickoff Saturday at Williams-Brice Stadium (ESPN).
Trying to go to UT's next home game? Buy tickets here!
Tennessee was set to prefer starting on offense in 50 simulations and defense in the other 50, but the coin toss still decided who kicked to start the game. Here's what happened.
Tennessee vs. South Carolina: EA Sports College Football 27 results
Tennessee narrowly came out on top against South Carolina, winning 54 of 100 simulations. However, the teams produced identical scoring averages of 32.24 points, combining for 64.48 points per game.
- Actual odds (as of Oct. 22): Tennessee +2.5 | O/U 50.5
- Simulation odds: Pick’em | O/U 64.5
South Carolina threw for at least 300 yards in 47 simulations, while Tennessee reached that mark 27 times.
Forty games were decided by one touchdown or less, including 20 by a field goal or less. Tennessee won 23 of those 40 close contests and an impressive nine of 10 overtime games. Neither team recorded a shutout during the 100-game run.
Here’s our prediction based strictly on the averages:
- Predicted score: Tennessee 32, South Carolina 32 after regulation; Tennessee gets the edge in overtime after winning 54% of the simulations.
- Tennessee offense: 185 rushing | 255 passing | 440 total offense (including special teams: 529 yards)
- South Carolina offense: 129 rushing | 291 passing | 420 total offense (including special teams: 540 yards)
- Turnovers: Tennessee committed 92 turnovers to South Carolina’s 135 (Tennessee +43 advantage)
Knox News sports columnist John Adams expects a lower-scoring game but a more decisive outcome for the Vols, predicting Tennessee to beat South Carolina 26-16. The ESPN Matchup Predictor gives Tennessee a near 60% chance of victory, slightly higher than our 54% prediction based on 100 simulations.
More highlights, what to watch for in Tennessee vs. South Carolina
- Biggest Tennessee win: 49-3 (46-point margin)
- Biggest South Carolina win: 62-14 (48-point margin)
- Highest-scoring game: Tennessee 57, South Carolina 55 in overtime (112 points)
- Lowest-scoring game: South Carolina 27, Tennessee 10 (37 points)
Keenan's thing to watch: Using the strong momentum of recent weeks, the Volunteers could march down to Columbia and clobber the Gamecocks, but it will be a formidable fight. UT should keep in mind that South Carolina has the home-field advantage and might be invigorated by recent SEC upsets, although UT's well-oiled defense could be the decisive factor against this unranked opponent.
Ryan's thing to watch: If the game stays close, and it doesn’t get any closer than both teams averaging the same number of points, Tennessee should be able to pull off the road win. South Carolina had a wider average margin in its victories, while the Vols won 23 of 40 simulations decided by a touchdown or less, including nine of 10 in overtime. But Tennessee was even better in the tightest finishes, winning 14 of 20 decided by three points or fewer.
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Knox News reporter Keenan Thomas covers higher education for the Business Growth & Development team, led by its editor, Ryan Wilusz. You can reach them by email: keenan.thomas@knoxnews.com | ryan.wilusz@knoxnews.com
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This article originally appeared on Knoxville News Sentinel: We simulated Tennessee-South Carolina 100 times. It couldn't be any closer
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