Knox News is running it back with EA Sports College Football 27, putting the "Third Saturday in October" rivalry game through 100 simulations at Neyland Stadium to see how No. 14 Tennessee might fare against No. 7 Alabama on Oct. 17.
The Volunteers (5-1, 2-1 SEC) are off to a strong start this season, and the simulations have correctly predicted Tennessee's outcome in every game we were able to model, including the home loss to Texas.
Unlike EA Sports, Furman is not "in the game," meaning we couldn't simulate the season opener. But unless the Paladins were capable of pulling off a PlayStation miracle, it's safe to assume we'd be 6-for-6.
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The Vols are back home to host the Alabama Crimson Tide
(5-1, 3-1 SEC), with both teams donning their home uniform combinations. Reporter Keenan Thomas and editor Ryan Wilusz matched those conditions in the video game, down to the jerseys, clear skies and 3:30 p.m. kickoff for Saturday's matchup at Neyland Stadium (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC).
Tennessee was set to prefer starting on offense in 50 simulations and defense in the other 50, but the coin toss still decided who kicked to start the game. Here's what happened.
Tennessee vs. Alabama: EA Sports College Football 27 results
It could be a close one, but fans who witnessed the Vols' rousing 2022 victory against the Crimson Tide at Neyland Stadium might recognize the feeling when the final whistle blows Saturday.
Tennessee barely came out on top against Alabama, winning 52 of 100 simulations. The Vols won by an average of 3 points, while the teams combined for an average of 64 points per game.
- Simulation odds: Tennessee -3 | O/U 64
- Actual odds (as of Oct. 13): Tennessee +8.5 | O/U 51.5
With Tennessee's quarterback situation still unsettled, we split the 100 simulations evenly between Faizon Brandon and George MacIntyre, with each starting 50 games. Alabama threw for 300 or more yards in 39 simulations, while Tennessee did so 40 times.
Thirty-six games were decided by one touchdown or less, including 16 by a field goal or less. Tennessee won 14 of those close contests but just one of four games that went to overtime.
The Volunteers delivered the only shutout of the 100-game run, squashing the Crimson Tide 38-0 in Game 87.
Here's our prediction based on averages from 100 simulations:
- Predicted score: Tennessee 34, Alabama 31
- Tennessee offense: 181 rushing | 286 passing | 467 total offense (including special teams: 561 yards)
- Alabama offense: 147 rushing | 274 passing | 421 total offense (including special teams: 537 yards)
- Turnovers: Tennessee committed 131 turnovers to Alabama's 111 (Alabama +20)
Knox News sports columnist John Adams also expects a close game, but with Alabama winning 24-20, pointing to Tennessee's scoring in SEC play and an iffy passing game. The ESPN Matchup Predictor is more bullish on Alabama, giving the Crimson Tide a 71% chance of victory compared with Tennessee's 52% win rate across our 100 simulations.
More highlights from our latest round of simulations:
- Biggest Tennessee win: 51-10 (41-point margin)
- Biggest Alabama win: 51-16 (35-point margin)
- Highest-scoring game: 57-49, Tennessee in overtime (106 total points)
- Lowest-scoring game: 26-7, Alabama (33 total points)
Keenan's thing to watch: The quarterback might not make much difference in Tennessee's offensive production. George MacIntyre's offense averaged just 2 more yards than Faizon Brandon's in our simulations. MacIntyre had the stronger passing game, while Brandon's offense had the stronger rushing game but committed three more turnovers.
Ryan's thing to watch: Defense could be the key to victory for the Vols based on this set of simulations. Tennessee won 39 of the 43 games in which Alabama was held to less than 30 points for a 91% win rate. When the Crimson Tide scored at least 30 points, the Vols' winning percentage dropped to 23%.
Follow along: Keep up with the University of Tennessee at Knoxville by signing up at knoxnews.com/newsletters for "The T," a free weekly newsletter highlighting the latest happenings on campus while spotlighting students and alumni. Mainly interested in sports? Get the daily GoVolsXtra newsletter sent straight to your inbox using the same link.
Keenan Thomas is the higher education reporter for the Knox News Business Growth & Development team, led by Business Growth & Development Editor Ryan Wilusz. You can reach them by email: keenan.thomas@knoxnews.com | ryan.wilusz@knoxnews.com
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This article originally appeared on Knoxville News Sentinel: 100 simulations of Tennessee football vs. Alabama predict Tide could turn
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