The Original (and Terrible) Idea
When FIFA first announced the 48-team expansion, the proposed format was met with immediate and widespread criticism. The plan was to have 16 groups of just three teams each. The top two teams from each tiny group would then advance to a 32-team knockout
bracket. Sports analysts, coaches, and fans quickly pointed out the glaring flaws. Chief among them was the risk of collusion. In a three-team group, the two teams playing the final match would know exactly what result they needed to both advance, potentially knocking out the third team that had already played its two games. It also created an unbalanced schedule and raised the possibility of dramatic final-day shootouts for qualification being replaced by cynical, pre-arranged draws. It was a format seemingly designed to kill the very drama that makes the World Cup group stage so compelling.
The 2022 World Cup Taught a Lesson
Then, the 2022 World Cup in Qatar happened. The tournament’s group stage was arguably one of the most thrilling in modern history. The final matchday in almost every four-team group was filled with edge-of-your-seat drama, with teams like Japan, South Korea, and Morocco providing stunning upsets. The sight of Germany and Spain both teetering on the brink of elimination in the final minutes of their group served as a powerful, live-action argument for the magic of the four-team format.
FIFA President Gianni Infantino himself admitted that watching the simultaneous, heart-stopping action of the group finales forced a major rethink. The sporting integrity and sheer entertainment value of the traditional structure were too valuable to sacrifice. The three-team group idea was quietly sent to the scrap heap.
The New, Supersized Format
After going back to the drawing board, FIFA’s council unanimously approved a new—and much larger—structure in March 2023. The 2026 tournament will now feature 12 groups of four teams each. Just like in previous tournaments, the top two teams from each group will automatically advance.
The big change comes from accommodating the extra 16 teams. To complete the knockout bracket, the eight best-performing third-place teams from the 12 groups will also earn a spot in the next round. This “lucky loser” model is already used in the European Championships and provides a lifeline for teams that perform respectably but fall just short in a difficult group.
Say Hello to the Round of 32
This is where the knockout round gets longer. With 32 teams advancing from the group stage (24 automatic qualifiers + 8 third-place teams), the tournament requires a whole new knockout stage: the Round of 32. This is an extra layer of win-or-go-home soccer inserted before the familiar Round of 16.
Instead of jumping from a 48-team group stage to a 16-team knockout, the tournament will now progress from 48 to 32 to 16 to 8, and so on. This adds an entire round of 16 matches to the schedule. The total number of games in the tournament explodes from 64 in the 2022 format to a staggering 104 in 2026. For the two teams that make it all the way to the final, they will now have to play eight matches instead of the seven required in every tournament since 1974.
What This All Means
For fans, it means more soccer—a lot more. The tournament will last longer, stretching close to 40 days. For smaller nations, it offers a greater chance not only to qualify for the World Cup but also to dream of a knockout stage run, even from third place. For FIFA, the 104-game model means significantly more broadcast and ticket revenue.
However, it also raises concerns. Player welfare is a major issue, as a run to the final now constitutes an even more grueling marathon. Some critics also argue that allowing so many third-place teams to advance devalues the group stage, making it harder for teams to be eliminated early and reducing the stakes of each match. The group stage might feel less cutthroat, but the trade-off is an extra round of high-stakes knockout drama.
