The Night the Underdog Won
Let’s rewind to March 27, 2022. Jane Campion’s The Power of the Dog was the overwhelming favorite to win Best Picture. It was a director-driven, visually stunning, and critically lauded masterpiece—exactly the kind of film the Academy historically rewards.
Its main competition, CODA, was a feel-good Sundance hit acquired by Apple TV+. While beloved, it was seen as too sentimental, too small. But when the final envelope was opened, the industry gasped. CODA had won. The victory was largely attributed to the Academy's preferential ballot system for Best Picture. Instead of voting for one winner, members rank the nominees. A film with broad consensus and many second- and third-place votes can triumph over a polarizing frontrunner that collects as many passionate detractors as it does fans. CODA was the film almost everyone could agree they liked, while The Power of the Dog proved more divisive.
A New Voter, A New Campaign
The CODA win didn't happen in a vacuum. It was the culmination of years of deliberate change within the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. Following the #OscarsSoWhite controversy in the mid-2010s, the Academy launched an aggressive campaign to diversify its membership. From 2016 to 2020, the organization expanded its ranks by nearly 50%, inviting thousands of new, younger, and more international members. This new guard didn't necessarily share the same tastes as the older, more established voters. Simultaneously, the streaming wars changed the nature of Oscar campaigning. Apple TV+ reportedly mounted a relentlessly positive and visible campaign for CODA, focusing on its emotional core and bypassing some of the traditional, stuffier avenues of Oscar promotion. They proved that a modern, heartfelt campaign aimed at a newer, more diverse voting body could topple a conventional awards favorite.
The Aftershocks of 2022
If CODA was a tremor, the following year’s ceremony was the earthquake. Everything Everywhere All at Once, an anarchic, genre-bending, multiverse action-comedy, completely swept the 2023 Oscars. Like CODA, it was an accessible, emotionally resonant film that became a cultural phenomenon. The old logic—that serious, dramatic fare was the only path to Best Picture—was officially dead. The trend continued, albeit with some blockbuster flavor. In 2024, Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer, a critical and commercial behemoth, took home the top prize, proving the Academy could still rally behind a big, serious film. Yet, the following years saw a return to the indie-darling-turned-victor model. Sean Baker's Anora won in 2025, and Paul Thomas Anderson's One Battle After Another took the prize in 2026, confirming that smaller, character-driven stories now have a permanent and powerful seat at the table.
The Verdict: A More Democratic Oscar
So, has the industry been completely "reshaped"? The answer is a qualified yes. The Academy's voting patterns have been fundamentally rebalanced. The era of a single, predictable type of Best Picture winner is over. The diversification of its membership and the power of the preferential ballot mean that a film's ability to inspire genuine affection is now as crucial as its critical acclaim. Streamers and studios have learned that aggressive, emotionally targeted campaigns work on this new electorate. This has made the Oscar race far less predictable and, arguably, more exciting. It’s no longer just about which film is the most “important” or “artistic” in a traditional sense. It’s about which film connects most broadly and deeply, whether it’s a tiny indie, a sci-fi epic, or a historical blockbuster.
