The Foundation for Belief
There's a reason for the unprecedented expectations surrounding this team. For the first time, the U.S. fields a roster where the core players are not just participating in Europe's top leagues, but are key contributors. Christian Pulisic, now thriving
at AC Milan, is the undisputed creative engine. He's joined by a battle-tested midfield of Weston McKennie and Tyler Adams, and a host of other talents like Sergiño Dest and Gio Reyna who are in their prime. This is the “Golden Generation,” now with experience from the 2022 tournament under their belts. Add the significant advantage of playing at home—familiar stadiums, passionate crowds, and favorable seeding as a host nation—and the argument for advancing deep into the tournament writes itself. The team has already demonstrated its potential, winning its first two group stage matches against Paraguay and Australia before a narrow loss to Türkiye in a match where many starters were rested.
So, What Does 'A Run' Even Mean?
In the expanded 48-team tournament, simply getting out of the group stage is the bare minimum expectation. A true "run" means winning a knockout game, something the USMNT hasn't accomplished since 2002. With the bracket taking shape, the U.S. knows its path begins with a Round of 32 match against Bosnia and Herzegovina. A victory there would likely set up a Round of 16 clash with either Belgium or Senegal. This is where the dream meets reality. A win in the Round of 16, putting the team into the quarterfinals, would be a monumental achievement and the consensus benchmark for a truly successful tournament. Anything beyond that—a semifinal appearance or more—would change American soccer forever, launching the team into territory it hasn't seen since the inaugural World Cup in 1930.
The Hurdles on the Path
Optimism must be tempered with realism. While the talent is undeniable, questions remain. The team's performance under pressure has been inconsistent, and the defense has shown vulnerability in transition moments. The final group stage match, a 3-2 loss to Türkiye, served as a reminder that the team's depth may not be as robust as hoped, with a notable performance drop-off when key starters are rested. While the forward position looks stronger than in past cycles with Folarin Balogun, Ricardo Pepi, and Haji Wright all in form, the team still lacks a truly elite, game-breaking striker on the level of the world's top powers. Furthermore, the knockout rounds present a massive step up in competition. Should the U.S. advance to the quarterfinals, a powerhouse like Spain or Portugal could be waiting, a test that would require a near-perfect performance to overcome.
The Final Verdict
So, can they do it? Yes, a run is absolutely possible. This is the most talented, experienced, and well-positioned American team in modern history. Winning the Round of 32 match is a strong possibility. Advancing past the Round of 16 is within their grasp, especially against a beatable, if tricky, opponent. But a quarterfinal is likely their ceiling. To go further, the U.S. would need its stars like Pulisic to play at a world-class level, the tactical plan from coach Mauricio Pochettino to be executed flawlessly, and a touch of the good fortune that every team needs in a World Cup. They have a legitimate chance to make this a summer to remember by winning a knockout game and reaching the final eight. But a Cinderella run to the final, while a tantalizing dream, would require them to consistently punch above their weight against the sport's true titans.
