The Allure of the Lido
First, let's be clear: the myth exists for a reason. For the last decade, Venice has served as a remarkably effective launchpad for future Oscar winners. Four of the last twelve Best Picture winners premiered here: "Birdman" (2014), "Spotlight" (2015),
"The Shape of Water" (2017), and "Nomadland" (2020). The festival has also been the starting point for a slew of major acting awards, with stars like Emma Stone ("Poor Things"), Frances McDormand ("Nomadland"), and Joaquin Phoenix ("Joker") all beginning their winning campaigns on the Italian coast. This consistent track record, combined with the festival’s historic prestige and glamorous setting, creates a powerful narrative. When a film lands well here, it feels like the start of an inevitable journey to the Dolby Theatre. The media loves a simple story, and "Venice darling becomes Oscar champion" is as good as it gets.
The Long and Winding Road
The reality, however, is that a Venice premiere is just the first, highly-publicized step in a grueling, months-long marathon. After Venice, films often travel to other key fall festivals like Telluride and Toronto, where they are tested with different audiences and a wider array of critics. A film that soars in Venice can just as easily stumble in North America. Furthermore, the members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences are a very different and much larger group than the festival jury that hands out the Golden Lion. An Oscar campaign involves millions of dollars in marketing, countless interviews, and strategic screenings designed to keep a film in the conversation all the way through winter. A splashy Venice debut provides momentum, but it can fade quickly if the studio doesn't play its cards right or if another film captures the zeitgeist a month later.
The Cautionary Tales
For every "Nomadland," there's a film that peaked on the Lido. Winning the festival's top prize, the Golden Lion, is no guarantee of Oscar success. Just look at the 2024 Golden Lion winner, Pedro Almodóvar's "The Room Next Door," which was buzzed about as a contender but ultimately failed to secure a single Oscar nomination. The same year, the highly anticipated sequel "Joker: Folie A Deux" was positioned as a major awards player before its Venice premiere, only to see its Oscar chances evaporate upon arrival. This pattern isn't new. The history of fall festivals is littered with movies that earned rave reviews and even major awards in September, only to be completely forgotten by the Academy voters months later. These films serve as a crucial reminder that festival buzz and industry awards are two very different beasts.
So What Is Venice Really For?
If it isn't an Oscar factory, what is the point of Venice? For studios and filmmakers, it’s the ultimate litmus test. A premiere on the Lido is a chance to generate crucial early media coverage, build prestige, and gauge a film's awards potential before committing to a costly campaign. A strong reception can attract a U.S. distributor or convince a studio to increase its marketing budget. A weak reception can serve as a sign to cut losses and refocus efforts elsewhere. For audiences and critics, it's the official starting gun of awards season—a first look at the movies that will dominate film conversations for the next six months. It’s not about finding the automatic winner, but about defining the initial field of play and setting the narrative for the race to come.
