The Conventional Playbook
For years, the formula was simple. A serious Oscar contender would premiere at a prestigious, curated festival like Venice or Telluride. It would then travel to Toronto to build buzz and, ideally, win the coveted People's Choice Award. This award, voted
on by the public, has an astonishing track record, with winners like "Green Book," "Nomadland," and "American Fiction" all going on to major Oscar nominations or wins. This path established a film's critical bona fides and its popular appeal, setting the stage for a months-long, carefully managed campaign culminating on Oscar night. Toronto was the place where a film proved it could please both cinephiles and broader audiences.
The Telluride Buzz That Won't Quit
This year, however, some of the most talked-about films arrived in Toronto with their buzz already at a fever pitch from other festivals. Films like Jesse Eisenberg’s musical-comedy "The Debut" and the Andrew Scott-led drama "Elsinore" earned ecstatic reviews at Telluride before landing in Canada. Rather than using TIFF as a launchpad, these films are using it as a powerful amplifier. The strategy seems to be to dominate the conversation early, forcing other films to play catch-up. This shift has led to some analysts noting that TIFF missed out on several key world premieres, suggesting its traditional role as the season's primary starting gun is being contested.
The Crowd-Pleaser vs. The Critic
Another major disruption comes from films that might not fit the traditional “prestige picture” mold but are generating huge audience excitement. Peter Farrelly, who previously won the People's Choice Award and Best Picture for "Green Book," is back with "I Play Rocky," a film about Sylvester Stallone's underdog journey to make the original movie. Early screenings have resulted in massive applause and standing ovations, positioning it as a major contender for the audience award. However, critical reviews have been more mixed, with some calling its style unexceptional. If a feel-good movie like "I Play Rocky" wins the top prize over more critically lauded films, it could challenge the very definition of what an "awards movie" is supposed to look like in 2026.
The Rise of International and Genre Contenders
The playbook is also being rewritten by an influx of strong international films and genre pictures making serious waves. Netflix's Spanish-language spectacle "La Bola Negra" and Palme d'Or winner "Fjord" are being discussed not just for the International Feature category, but as broader awards players. TIFF even introduced an International People's Choice Award, acknowledging the growing global influence. At the same time, the festival's popular Midnight Madness section and its Primetime sidebar for television are launching genre fare, like the Netflix horror series "Below," that captures audience attention in a way that traditional dramas sometimes struggle to. This diversification of buzzy titles forces voters and studios to look beyond the usual English-language dramas for potential winners.
