1. The 'Core Technology Fee' Comes to America
In Europe, Apple was forced by the Digital Markets Act (DMA) to allow alternative app stores and payment systems. But it came with a twist: the Core Technology Fee (CTF). This fee charges developers €0.50 per user per year after they cross one million
installs, even if the app is free and uses no Apple payment services. Developers called it malicious compliance. By 2026, following the U.S. Department of Justice’s major antitrust lawsuit, Apple may be forced to open its U.S. platform. Don't be surprised if they try to implement a similar fee structure Stateside. For a viral free app, this could transform success into a terrifying financial liability, fundamentally changing the risk calculation for startups.
2. True Competition for In-App Payments
Currently, using an alternative payment processor on iOS is a clunky, multi-step process designed to discourage users. If regulators in the U.S. or EU force Apple’s hand further, WWDC 2026 could unveil a system where third-party payment options like Stripe or PayPal are integrated as seamlessly as Apple's own. While developers would still likely owe Apple a commission (the 'Apple Tax'), it would be smaller than the current 15-30%. The big win? Developers could finally own the customer relationship, manage subscriptions directly, and avoid the App Store's notoriously opaque refund and support processes. This would be less a change and more a revolution.
3. A More Complex Commission Structure
Apple’s current 15% (for small businesses) and 30% (for everyone else) commission rates are famously simple—and famously blunt. By 2026, we could see a far more granular system. Imagine different rates for different types of apps: maybe 20% for games (the App Store’s cash cow), 10% for educational or news subscription apps, and a lower fee for physical goods sold via an app. This would be a strategic move by Apple to appease regulators by showing flexibility, while protecting its highest-margin revenue streams. For developers, it would mean navigating a more complex tax code-like system, where your app’s category could drastically alter its profitability.
4. The Rise of Curated, Niche App Stores
Sideloading—installing apps from the web—is one thing. But what if a company like Adobe, Microsoft, or even Epic Games launched their own App Store directly on iOS? This is the future envisioned by the DMA and the DOJ lawsuit. By WWDC 2026, Apple might have to announce the technical frameworks to make this possible. Instead of one gatekeeper, developers could have multiple storefronts to choose from, each with its own rules, discovery algorithms, and commission rates. A game developer might launch exclusively on Epic's store for a better revenue split, while a productivity app might choose a Microsoft-run store. This would break the App Store's monopoly on discovery, creating new winners and losers.
5. 'Anti-Steering' Rules Finally Crumble
One of the most contentious App Store rules prevents developers from telling users they can get a better price by subscribing on the developer's website. After years of legal battles (notably with Epic Games and Spotify), these 'anti-steering' provisions are already cracking. By 2026, they could be gone entirely. An app like Netflix could freely show a button inside the app that says, “Sign up on Netflix.com for $12.99/month and save!” This simple change would be monumental, allowing developers to acquire customers on the world's most valuable platform and then convert them to direct, higher-margin subscribers. Apple would lose billions, and developers would reclaim control of their pricing.
6. New Monetization Models for VisionOS and AI
Not all changes will be driven by regulators. As Apple pushes into new platforms like VisionOS and integrates AI more deeply, it will need developers to build new kinds of experiences—and new ways to pay for them. WWDC 2026 could introduce entirely new economic models. Perhaps we’ll see API-call-based pricing for powerful on-device AI features, where developers pay Apple based on usage. Or maybe Apple will offer new revenue-sharing models for immersive spatial computing apps on the Vision Pro, with different commission rates to incentivize development on the fledgling platform. This represents Apple’s proactive attempt to shape the economics of the next computing wave, rather than just reacting to pressure on the last one.
