India-Pakistan Armed Conflict Likely in 2026 Due to 'Heightened Terrorist Activity', Warns US Think Tank

India and Pakistan could face the possibility of seeing a "renewed" armed conflict in 2026 due to "heightened terrorist activity", according to a report by a US think tank that surveyed American foreign policy experts. The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) dubbed the chances of armed conflict as "moderate likelihood" that it could have a "moderate impact" on American interests. It also stated that the Donald Trump administration had "sought to end" the conflict between New Delhi and Islamabad.There is a "moderate likelihood" of a "renewed armed conflict between India and Pakistan due to heightened terrorist activity", the CFR said in its Conflicts to Watch in 2026 report.The CFR report also pointed out that Pakistan could face another flashpoint

with Afghanistan. There is a moderate likelihood of "renewed armed conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan, triggered by resurgent cross-border militant attacks", the report mentioned.Such a conflict would be of "low impact" on American interests, it said.Also Read: 'To Build Peace That Lasts': After Trump, Now China Claims Credit For Mediating India-Pakistan Conflict

India's Operation Sindoor

India and Pakistan were locked in a brief but intense military confrontation in May, triggered by a terror attack in the Pahalgam valley of Jammu and Kashmir on April 22, which claimed 26 innocent lives. Following the terror attack, India responded with Operation Sindoor, targeting terror infrastructure in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. It had three clear objectives: military, political, and psychological. All three were met, and over 100 terrorists, including high-value targets like Yusuf Azhar, Abdul Malik Rauf, and Mudasir Ahmed, have been successfully eliminated in the operation.

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While US President Donald Trump has repeatedly claimed that Washington helped de-escalate the military conflict, India has consistently dismissed claims of any third-party mediation, maintaining that the four-day confrontation was resolved through direct military-to-military communication. New Delhi has maintained that, inflicted by this heavy damage, Pakistan's Director General of Military Operations (DGMO) called the Indian DGMO and both sides agreed to stop all firing and military action on land and in the air and sea with effect from May 10.(With agency inputs)