Exit Polls vs Reality: The 2021 West Bengal Verdict

After a record-shattering voter turnout in the first phase, West Bengal now heads into its decisive second and final round of polling, a crucial test for the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC). This phase is widely seen as a political litmus test, as voting shifts to the party's strongholds in South Bengal and Kolkata, regions that have traditionally anchored the TMC's dominance.The scale of this final leg is immense. As many as 142 of the state’s 294 assembly seats are voting in this phase, making it pivotal in shaping the final outcome. In the 2021 assembly elections, this very belt proved decisive for the TMC. The party swept 123 of the 142 seats, underlining its deep-rooted influence in the region. For the BJP, the battle in this phase hinges

on breaking into the urban bhadralok vote base and consolidating support among the Matua community. For the TMC, the objective is to hold its ground and pave the way for a fourth consecutive term for Mamata Banerjee.Once polling concludes, the spotlight will turn to exit polls. While often treated as an early signal of the electorate's mood, their track record, especially in West Bengal, has been far from consistent.

What happened in the 2021 elections: Exit polls vs results

In 2021, most exit polls pointed to a neck-and-neck contest between the TMC and the BJP. The aggregated “poll of polls” projected Mamata Banerjee’s party at around 156 of the 292 seats, with the BJP close behind at roughly 121, suggesting a fiercely competitive race.The actual results, however, told a very different story.The TMC stormed back to power with a commanding 215 seats, dramatically outperforming projections. The BJP, despite significant gains, was restricted to 77 seats, enough to emerge as the principal opposition, but far short of what exit polls had indicated.This stark difference between the forecast and final results exposed the limitations of exit polls in capturing West Bengal's complex electoral dynamics. Exit polls this year are expected at 5 PM on April 29.Final results will be declared on May 4.