US Strikes Venezuela: Will the Crisis Hit India? GTRI Explains

India is unlikely to face any significant economic or energy impact from the unfolding crisis in Venezuela, according to the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI). The trade think tank has advised caution

but said New Delhi’s exposure to Venezuela has steadily declined over the past few years.GTRI noted that while India was once a major buyer of Venezuelan crude, especially during the 2000s and 2010s, imports have fallen sharply since 2019 due to US sanctions. Indian companies such as ONGC Videsh earlier held stakes in Venezuela’s Orinoco Belt, but commercial activity was scaled back to avoid the risk of secondary sanctions.As a result, bilateral trade is now relatively small and shrinking further. In 2024–25, India imported goods worth just $364.5 million from Venezuela, of which crude oil accounted for $255.3 million. This marked a steep 81.3% decline from imports of $1.4 billion in 2023–24. India’s exports to Venezuela stood at $95.3 million, led mainly by pharmaceutical products worth $41.4 million.“Given the low trade volumes, existing sanctions constraints and the large geographical distance, the current developments in Venezuela are not expected to have any meaningful impact on India’s economy or energy security,” GTRI said.Looking ahead, however, the think tank warned that global competition for energy and raw materials is likely to intensify. It urged India to protect its strategic autonomy and secure access to critical resources without being drawn into geopolitical pressures.GTRI’s assessment comes after US forces carried out a large-scale military operation in Venezuela, capturing President Nicolás Maduro and his wife. They were taken to the US to face charges including allegations of narco-terrorism and drug trafficking.Venezuela’s vast oil reserves lie at the centre of the crisis. The country holds roughly 18% of the world’s proven oil reserves—more than Saudi Arabia, Russia or the United States, and even exceeding the combined reserves of the US and Russia. GTRI said free access to Venezuelan oil is a key strategic interest for Washington, particularly as the US has committed to supplying petroleum products and LNG to several partners despite limited spare capacity.For India, however, the message is clear: while global energy geopolitics may shift, the immediate fallout from the Venezuela crisis is unlikely to materially affect the country.