What's Holding Back The Monsoon? Scientists Cite Indian Ocean Changes, El Nino Threat

The Indian Ocean, which normally plays a crucial role in strengthening the southwest monsoon, is currently witnessing unusually weak weather activity, raising concerns over the impact of a developing El Nino event on rainfall across India.Typically, the warm waters in the Indian Ocean generate clouds and low-pressure systems that move towards the Indian subcontinent, bringing monsoon rains. However, meteorologists say cloud formation and weather disturbances over the Indian ocean are significantly weaker than usual this season.Recent satellite imagery has shown vast stretches of clear skies south of India, indicating limited development of rain-bearing systems over the ocean. As a result, monsoon winds have not gained their usual strength, delaying

rainfall and slowing the monsoon's advance across regions including Kerala and other parts of the country.Amid concerns over a possible weak monsoon, the Centre has gone into alert mode. Union Agriculture and Farmers Welfare Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan said on Tuesday that a high-level review meeting was held to assess the progress of the southwest monsoon and evaluate its potential impact on agriculture.He stated that the government is closely monitoring the situation and remains committed to safeguarding farmers' interests. Preparations are already underway, with a focus on ensuring the availability of quality seeds, promoting moisture conservation, improving water management and planning alternative cropping strategies.The minister also noted that reservoir levels across the country are currently above normal, providing a positive buffer ahead of the Kharif sowing season.Meanwhile, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the United Nations agency responsible for monitoring global weather and climate patterns, has warned that El Nino conditions are developing due to unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean.According to the WMO, the emerging El Nino is likely to influence rainfall and temperature patterns worldwide, increasing the risk of extreme weather events in the coming months. The agency said above-normal temperatures are expected in many parts of the world between June and August.The latest WMO outlook estimates an 80 percent probability of El Nino conditions during June-August 2026. The phenomenon is expected to persist through November, with the likelihood rising to 90 percent or higher. While the exact intensity remains uncertain, forecasters say the event could develop into a moderate to strong El Nino.