Bihar Election 2025: What Are Exit Polls and How Are They Conducted

Bihar

Election 2025: The high-stakes Bihar Assembly Election 2025 was conducted in two phases on November 6 and 11, covering a total of 243 assembly constituencies. Of these, voting took place in 121 seats during the first phase and in the remaining 122 seats during the second. As the election has now concluded, all focus shifts to the exit poll outcomes ahead of the final results, which will be declared on Friday, November 14.

What Are Exit Polls?

Exit polls are surveys conducted by media organisations or research agencies immediately after voters leave polling stations. These polls aim to gauge the mood of the electorate by asking voters a set of questions related to various issues they face in their constituencies and regions.Based on these responses, analysts predict which party may take the lead or have an edge when the actual results are declared after vote counting.Voters are asked whom they voted for, and their responses are compiled to estimate the likely outcome of the election.Exit poll surveys are based on representative sampling across various constituencies to reflect and predict broader voting trends.

How Exit Polls Are Conducted

Various media organisations and survey agencies, run by professional pollsters, deploy trained officials to selected constituencies and polling booths.Voters are approached by these personnel either before or after voting, typically outside their polling stations.These voters are then asked a set of questions—about their voting preference, why they chose a particular party, their expectations from the government or a specific candidate, and whom they believe may emerge as the winner, among others.What Data Is Collected During Exit Polls

• Vote choice
• Demographics (including age, gender, caste, etc.)
• Reasons for voting decisions

Based on these factors, the results are analysed using statistical models to project seat shares and vote percentages.Why Do Exit Polls Matter?Exit polls are the first set of data released immediately after an election concludes, offering a broad indication of which party, alliance, or candidate may take the lead on result day.However, they are not always accurate. There have been several occasions when exit poll predictions have missed the mark due to sampling errors or voter reluctance to disclose true preferences.Exit Poll Legal GuidelinesIn India, the Election Commission of India (ECI) prohibits the publication of exit poll results until voting concludes in all phases. This is done to ensure that exit poll data does not influence undecided voters during ongoing polling.