Bengal Cliffhanger, Tamil Nadu Wild Card, Kerala Switch, Assam Hat-Trick — What Exit Polls Say And What They Don't

More than 200 million voters across four states and one Union Territory have spoken with their votes. The booths are shut, the ballots are sealed, and exit poll verdicts are out. But “picture abhi baaki hai.” The final results will be out May 4, when the votes will be counted to decide the actual fate of big and mighty. But the picture exit polls paint is one part cliffhanger, one part historic surprise, and one part confirmation.A short exit poll summary before details: Three exit polls say the BJP ends Mamata Banerjee's fifteen-year run in Bengal; one says no surprises – it's the TMC sweep. In Tamil Nadu, Thalapathy Vijay's two-year-old party TVK is being predicted anywhere between 13 and 120 seats, a range so wide it is less a forecast and more

a confession that nobody's model works there this year. Kerala is changing guards. Assam is giving Himanta Biswa Sarma a hat-trick. Puducherry stays with the NDA.All five verdicts land on May 4. But let’s explore what the polls say – and why at least one of them will look very different by the evening of May 4, or maybe not.

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West Bengal: Three Say BJP, One Says TMC, History Says WaitWest Bengal recorded 93.19 per cent turnout in Phase 1 on April 23 and historic 91.66 per cent in Phase 2 on April 29. This means the total turnout across two phases stands at nearly 92.47 per cent, the highest rate of polling in any West Bengal Assembly election since Independence, according to the Election Commission.The poll of polls gives the BJP 158 seats and TMC 130 in West Bengal's 294-member assembly, where 148 is the majority mark. On that number, BJP wins.

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Matrize predicts BJP 146-161, TMC 125-140. P-MARQ goes further — BJP 150-175 — which would represent a comprehensive saffron majority and the end of the Trinamool Congress's grip on the state. The JVC poll gives NDA 138-159 and TMC 131-152, a range so wide it fits both a BJP win and a TMC win inside the same forecast. Three agencies are pointing the BJP toward power. Not one is predicting a TMC win. On the surface, that looks like consensus.Beneath the surface, it looks like 2021.In the 2021 Bengal elections, the poll of polls estimated the TMC at 156 and the BJP at 121. The actual result: TMC 215, BJP 77. Exit polls underestimated Mamata Banerjee’s TMC by 61 seats on average and overestimated the BJP by 49. Jan Ki Baat predicted BJP at 162-185. NDTV-Axis My India suggested a narrow BJP majority. Every agency was wrong — not by a margin, but by a landslide.The 2016 Bengal election followed the same pattern. Exit polls predicted TMC at 184 seats. The party won 211. Two consecutive elections. Same directional error. Consistent underestimation of TMC's ground machinery and overestimation of BJP's ability to convert vote share into seats.Tamil Nadu Has A ‘Wild Card Entry’, Exit Polls SayTamil Nadu recorded 84.69 per cent turnout on April 23 — the highest ever for a state assembly election, 11 percentage points above 2021.Five of six agencies predict MK Stalin's DMK returns to power. The poll of polls gives DMK 112-129 seats, NDA 86-103, and Thalapathy Vijay's Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam 13-19 in 234-member assembly, and 118 is a magic number to retain or attain the ruling chair. On that reading, Stalin wins a second term, and the story writes itself.But the JVC outlier puts NDA at 128-147, a majority that would unseat Stalin and hand Edappadi K Palanisami the Chief Minister's chair. If that number is accurate, it immediately raises one question: how much did K Annamalai's four years of aggressive BJP ground-building contribute to an NDA surge the consensus missed? Annamalai's repeated remarks on AIADMK's ideology had caused the party to exit the NDA in 2023. The two reunited only in April 2025, just over a year before polling day. A late alliance whose real depth no exit poll could adequately measure. Annamalai chose not to contest this election but campaigned across the state. If NDA surprises on May 4, his four-year groundwork will be a significant part of that conversation. Wait… and watch!

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Then there is TVK — the number that makes everything else secondary. NDTV-Axis My India predicts actor-politician Vijay's party at 98-120 seats on its debut. TVK drew 68 per cent of its support from first-time voters. Vijay polled as the most preferred chief minister face at 37 per cent, leaving behind incumbent MK Stalin at 35 per cent and former chief minister E. Palanisami at 22 per cent.The distance between 13 seats and 120 seats is not a polling discrepancy. It is a statement that nobody has a working model for what a Tamil superstar with genuine mass appeal does when he steps into a ballot for the first time. If Axis My India is right, Tamil Nadu has a hung assembly and weeks of coalition arithmetic ahead. If the poll of polls is right, CM Stalin wins and TVK's debut is significant but contained.Kerala: The Orderly Goodbye To CM Pinarayi Vijayan?The Kerala story is the clearest of the five, or so exit polls predict. Matrize gives UDF 70-75 seats, LDF 60-65, NDA 3-5. The poll of polls gives the Congress-led UDF 76, Pinarayi Vijayan's LDF 60, and the BJP 4. In the 140-member Kerala assembly, 71 is the majority mark, and as per the exit polls, the incumbent LDF hard stops at 65 max.

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Kerala has not given any alliance a second consecutive term in its modern electoral history. Every exit poll agency agrees 2026 will not be the exception. The Congress-led United Democratic Front is heading back to power. The question is not whether Pinarayi Vijayan loses — it is by how much and what that means for the Left Democratic Front's credibility as an opposition force for the next five years. LDF losing Kerala will be a big setback. With Kerala, if exit poll results turn out to be correct, the Left will lose its last and only ruling state.Of all the state verdicts on May 4, Kerala's is the one the exit polls are most likely to get right.Assam: Himanta Sarma's Hattrick?No suspense here, say exit polls. Axis My India gives BJP+ 88-100 seats in Assam's 126-member assembly. The majority mark is 64. Matrize has 85-95. P-MARQ gives NDA 82-94. Congress+ trails at 24-40 seats across agencies. The poll of polls gives the NDA 92 seats — a dominant majority.Incumbent Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma is heading for a historic third consecutive NDA term. Assam is the one state where the exit poll record is clean, the trend is consistent, and the confidence is earned.Puducherry: No SurprisesThe poll of polls gives the NDA 20 seats in the 30-member assembly, four more than the desired 16 seats. Congress 8, and Vijay’s TVK and others sharing the rest. The NDA retains the Union Territory without drama, as per the exit polls.What To Watch On May 4 - The Counting DayThree things.First: West Bengal's historical correction factor. The poll of polls has been wrong by 61 seats against the TMC before. Even accounting for genuine BJP gains since 2021, that history sits above any single night's exit poll number.Second: Vijay's TVK tally in Tamil Nadu. Above 80 seats mean a hung assembly and a new political reality. Below 30 means MK Stalin’s DMK wins and Tamil Nadu's political grammar survives its most serious challenge.Third: Trust Kerala's exit polls more than Bengal's, and Assam's more than Tamil Nadu's. Treating all five poll of polls numbers with equal confidence is how you end up surprised on the morning of May 4.The only poll that has never been wrong is the final count – the result.May 4 is four days away.